I was on CNBC Squawk Box this morning discussing the current dynamics in the oil market and what the key takeaways are from the latest OPEC / IEA monthly oil reports (in combo with our flows data), as well as what could happen to prices over the rest of the year.
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Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.
Risk level: Orange
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Last night's appearance on CNBC Asia highlighted that OPEC is definitely going to unwind the production cut deal. In fact, it appears they already have.
Historically, production rises ahead of an OPEC quota increase, and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE - the key proponents of the OPEC production cut deal - are all showing significantly higher crude exports so far this month, as spigots are opened...
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This morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box once again addressed the notion of 'don't fight the Falih', and the likelihood of Saudi and Russia dialing back on production cuts at Friday's semi-annual meeting.
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The phrase 'hell for leather' first appeared in the Rudyard Kipling story, 'The Valley of the Shadow', relating to riding on horseback, and defined as 'breakneck speed, or with reckless determination'. This is a more than adequate way to describe the crude exports of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait in the past month.
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