This morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box once again addressed the notion of 'don't fight the Falih', and the likelihood of Saudi and Russia dialing back on production cuts at Friday's semi-annual meeting.
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In the latter half of last year, we highlighted how Saudi deliveries to Motiva's Port Arthur refinery had been surpassed by Iraqi barrels for the first time on our records. While this trend has now reversed, when it comes to total OPEC flows, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
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It is both the best and worst of times for the current Iraqi oil market. Iraqi oil minister Jabbar al-Luaibi said this week that Iraqi oil fields in the south of the country had recorded an 'unprecedented' surge in daily exports from Basrah during the last month. All the while, loadings in Ceyhan, Turkey, of crude from the Kirkuk pipeline in the north of the country continue to remain in check...
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Since the Kurdish referendum in late September, when Iraqi Kurds overwhelmingly voted for independence from Iraq, there has been a drop in crude flows through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, as tension has ratcheted up in the region.
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Saudi Arabia continues to lead the charge in terms of the OPEC production cut deal - not only by keeping exports in check, but also by clearly communicating its next steps. By following through on its rhetoric, it has brought some much-needed credibility to the production cut deal - despite a lack of commitment from some other members.
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Brent crude prices were propelled to a two-year high yesterday, triggered by concerns about a Kurdish referendum vote to seek independence from Iraq. Although the vote is non-binding, a yes vote would pave the way for negotiations to secede from Iraq.
Neighboring countries such as Iran and Turkey are against the referendum, fearing that it will stoke separatist sentiment among the Kurdish...
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