US wheat exports are below average so far this month, registering a daily pace of 29,770 Mt/d. That is down 49% from July, and 57% lower than the same month a year ago. Exports are 687,166 Mt on an absolute volume basis, which is down sharply from the 2.14mn Mt exported a year ago.

The seasonal pattern in US exports shows some strength in the months between April and June, although it depends on the size of the hard red winter crop. Much of the weakness this month has been the result of less availability of HRW wheat, where the loading pace is currently 7,306 Mt/d versus 21,898 Mt/d in July.

Hard red spring wheat may be in better shape, where the USDA shows 77% of the crop currently harvested. That is above the average of 55% and could help boost exports in weeks to come. HRS exports are currently 11,350 Mt/d, and down slightly from 14,378 Mt/d in July. They were 23,566 Mt/d a year ago.

Increased US exports are needed to satisfy global demand, as Russian exports are still hampered by the ongoing export tax. The EU is in good shape, as yields are currently 4.8% above a year ago, and exports are up 7% from a year ago to 64,298 Mt/d.

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