Between 2018 and 2020, Russian wheat exports reached their lowest point of each year during the month of June, and were followed by strong rebounds in July and August. This year, however, a low point was reached in May at 219,069 Mt, and was followed by a rebound to 1.49mn Mt in June. The rebound normally seen in July has, this year, seen loadings fall slightly from June, to 1.16mn Mt. June loadings were likely brought forward from July, and played a role in the July decline.
Combining June and July this year yields a result of 2.65mn Mt, which is only slightly below the combined result of 2.72mn Mt in June/July of 2020, and 2.87mn Mt in June/July 2019. While this year’s exports are lower compared to recent years, they come amid the new Russian tax on exports, which began in mid-February, and was made permanent in mid-June. The tax was implemented in order to bring down Russian domestic food prices. Export data from June and July, however, would argue that the impact of the tax has been minimal so far.