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ClipperBlog

03 June

The Geopolitical Risk and Energy Monitoring Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

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Tagged geopolitics, China tariffs, geopolitical tension, trade 1 Comment
31 May

LNG Market Analysis for April 2019



Kaleem Asghar

Global export loadings of liquefied natural gas last month totaled approximately 30.8 million tons on board 504 vessels, considerably higher than April 2018's pace of 24.1 million tons on 418 vessels. Approximately 31.0 million tons arrived at import terminals last month, compared to 23.1 million tons in March 2018.

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Tagged LNG exports, LNG imports, LNG Leave a comment
30 May

Alunorte’s Production Restrictions Lifted



Ron Coifman

With production restrictions at Brazil’s alumina refiner Alunorte lifted, the company’s caustic soda demand is likely to increase gradually. Alunorte’s increase in demand was expected to lead to a more balanced market following a period of caustic soda length in the region, the company’s restrictions on alumina refining since early 2018, and the general decline in caustic soda consumption.

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Tagged alumina Leave a comment
28 May

The Geopolitical Risk and Energy Monitoring Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Continue Reading
Tagged geopolitics, geopolitical tension Leave a comment
20 May

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Continue Reading
Tagged geopolitics, geopolitical tension Leave a comment
13 May

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Continue Reading
Tagged Arab Gulf crude exports, geopolitics, geopolitical tension Leave a comment
06 May

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Continue Reading
Tagged Venezuela sanctions, geopolitics, geopolitical tension, Iran sanctions Leave a comment
03 May

Venezuela: between political crisis and oil flows



Amir Richani

Venezuela’s political and economic crises continue to deteriorate, all while PdVSA tries to maintain steady oil flows.

On Tuesday, opposition leader Juan Guaido, accompanied by several members of the Venezuelan armed forces, called for military support to oust Nicolas Maduro.

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Tagged Venezuela, Venezuela sanctions 1 Comment
02 May

China Soybean Arrivals Swing to the Upside



Ken Smithmier

A sharp increase in April soybean imports into China appears to be due to seasonal stockpiling rather than any sort of stabilization in the ongoing African Swine Fever (ASF) epidemic. The month of April saw soybean arrivals accelerate to around 7.5 million tonnes, the largest monthly figure for 2019 and the largest since September 2018 when imports hit 8 million tonnes according to Chinese...

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Tagged China customs data, Soybeans, Global Grain, china soybean imports, global oilseed exports, global oilseed loadings, grainular, china, USDA Leave a comment
30 April

Turkey Looks Beyond Iranian Barrels



Noam Raydan

Back in 2014, amid sanctions on Iran, Turkey was importing around 100,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil. Imports doubled to over 200,000 bpd in 2017, before the re-imposition of sanctions by the United States late last year. 

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Tagged Russia, Iran, Iran oil exports, Russia oil exports, Iran sanctions, Turkey Leave a comment
29 April

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Continue Reading
Tagged Venezuela sanctions, geopolitics, geopolitical tension, Iran sanctions Leave a comment
24 April

China: Corn Industrial Use Shines, Feeding Takes a Hit



Ken Smithmier

In the most recent USDA Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) China Grain and Feed Annual Report, marketing year 2019/20 corn consumption was estimated at a record high 282 million tonnes, up from 279 million in 2018/19.

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Tagged Grain, Global Grain, US Exports, corn, grainular, ethanol, china, agriculture 1 Comment
23 April

March LNG Market Analysis



Kaleem Asghar

Global export loadings of liquefied natural gas last month totaled approximately 31.1 million tons on board 506 vessels, considerably higher than March 2018's pace of 24.5 million tons on 414 vessels. Approximately 30.6 million tons arrived at import terminals last month, compared to 25.6 million tons in March 2018.

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Tagged LNG exports, LNG imports, U.S. LNG exports, global lng market, russia lng exports, LNG Leave a comment
22 April

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Continue Reading
Tagged Libya, Libya oil exports, Libya crude exports, geopolitics, geopolitical tension, Iran sanctions Leave a comment
15 April

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Continue Reading
Tagged Russia, geopolitics, geopolitical tension, Venezuela heavy sour crude, US light sweet crude 1 Comment
12 April

From Rail to Barge, US Transportation Grid Slows



Ken Smithmier

The slowdown in the US logistics grid was first highlighted in our March 20th post When The Levee Breaks. Due to increased snow melt in the Northern Plains, more rain this week in the Ohio River Valley and a potential snowstorm impacting parts of Montana, Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota,  it doesn’t appear the mess is over. US corn, soybean and wheat shipments through the first 14 weeks of the...

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Tagged Grain, Soybeans, Global Grain, US Exports, us gulf coast, weather, corn, wheat, logistics, barge, rail Leave a comment
11 April

Libya’s Eastern Oil Ports at Risk, Again.



Noam Raydan

The status of Libya’s flagship Es Sider grade in recent years sums up the general situation in Libya: A stable recovery after years of conflict is unlikely for now.

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Tagged Libya, Libya crude exports Leave a comment
09 April

ClipperClip: The Sweet and the Sour



Matt Smith

Joe Kernen and myself have been bantering in recent interviews about what makes crude sweet or sour, so this morning I brought Venezuelan heavy sour crude and US light sweet crude to show him. It was deemed more sensible that we not taste test on air.

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Tagged OPEC crude exports, Venezuela heavy sour crude, US light sweet crude Leave a comment
08 April

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Continue Reading
Tagged Venezuela sanctions, geopolitics, geopolitical tension, Iran sanctions 1 Comment
03 April

Latin American PVC demand to track GDP growth



Ron Coifman

Demand this year for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) in various Latin American countries will depend on specific political and economic conditions in each country, even as participants also consider resin pricing.

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Tagged , resin, latin america, PVC 1 Comment
02 April

Seasonal Trade Flow Shift: Brazil to EU



Ken Smithmier

ClipperData would like to alert market participants to the seasonal shift underway from US-origin soybeans to Brazilian-origin soybeans for unloading in the European Union.

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Tagged Soybeans, Global Grain, global oilseed loadings, US Exports, brazil, logistics, latin america Leave a comment
02 April

Mexican light crude imports absent so far in 2019



Amir Richani

A number of media outlets reported in recent days that Pemex data show Mexico importing light crude oil in February. We believe this is not the case. Pemex published import data for February showing monthly volumes of LPG, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and “others.” 

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Tagged mexican oil exports, us crude exports, mexico crude exports, latin america, maya crude Leave a comment
01 April

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Continue Reading
Tagged Venezuela sanctions, geopolitics, venezuela crude exports, geopolitical tension 2 Comments
28 March

ClipperData Forecasts IMO 2020



Josh Lowell

With only nine months to go before the implementation of IMO 2020, the only certain thing about the forthcoming regulation is that there will be uncertainty. In an effort to better understand the impact, ClipperData has prepared a forecast for marine fuel consumption that covers the period between 2020 and 2025.

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Tagged bunker, IMO2020, LSFO, fuel oil, LNG, IMO 2020 2 Comments
26 March

Brazil caustic soda production on the rise in 2019



Ron Coifman

Brazil’s year-to-date (YTD) caustic soda production in January 2019 was 110,220 dry metric tons (dmt), a 19 percent increase compared with 92,690 dmt in January 2018, according to Abiclor, the country’s association of chlor-alkali industries.

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Tagged caustic soda 1 Comment
25 March

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report (GERM) by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Continue Reading
Tagged Venezuela sanctions, geopolitics, venezuela crude exports, geopolitical tension, Iran crude exports, Iran sanctions 1 Comment
20 March

When the Levee Breaks



Ken Smithmier

Heavy rainfall and above-normal snowfall accumulation across the US have escalated flood risk over the short and medium-term. The flood stage has already been surpassed at the Mississippi River in St. Louis, with water levels now exceeding 30 feet.

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Tagged Soybeans, Global Grain, us gulf coast, weather, corn, wheat, logistics Leave a comment
18 March

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report (GERM) by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Continue Reading
Tagged Iran oil exports, US heavy crude imports, venezuela crude exports, geopolitical tension 1 Comment
15 March

US Gulf Refiners Work to Mind the Venezuelan Gap



Amir Richani

A month and a half has passed since US sanctions restricted exports of Venezuelan crude to US refiners. Although the South American country is the biggest loser, refineries on the US Gulf Coast are also being significantly impacted.   

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Tagged Venezuela, Venezuelan exports, Colombia, brazil, us gulf coast Leave a comment
11 March

ClipperClip: Looking Toppy



Matt Smith

I was out on CNBC Asia last night, discussing the latest events in the oil market, from rising US production to OPEC - and what signs we see for the market from our ClipperData. 

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Tagged us oil production, OPEC crude exports, peak oil Leave a comment
11 March

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report (GERM) by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Continue Reading
Tagged US shale, OPEC compliance, geopolitics, geopolitical tension 1 Comment
09 March

Challenging Dynamics between Iran, Iraq and the US



Noam Raydan

Since the US reinstated sanctions on Iran in November, Iraq has been forced to deal with the repercussions: just one more challenge added to a long list. When the US began pressuring Baghdad to cut its energy imports from Iran - and before granting it the first waiver late 2018 -  some wondered whether Washington was punishing Iran or Iraq.  

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Tagged Iraq oil industry, Iran sanctions 2 Comments
08 March

Changing Trends in Global LNG Flows



Kaleem Asghar

Global LNG exports last month were approximately 27.5 million tons, loaded on 460 vessels, while arrivals totaled approximately 28.6 million tons, discharged by 462 vessels.

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Tagged LNG exports, global lng market, LNG Leave a comment
05 March

Container Lines Prepare for 2020



Josh Lowell

If you asked an executive from a major container line to sum up the IMO 2020 global sulfur cap in one word, I imagine the response would either be an expletive or the word “Expensive”.

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Tagged bunker, fuel oil, IMO 2020, Bunker Adjustment Factor Leave a comment
28 February

Changing Trends in Venezuelan Flows



Amir Richani

As the US closes its doors to Venezuelan crude, we see more cargoes heading to Asia, with India as the primary destination amid talk of PdVSA seeking to barter for its oil

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Tagged Venezuela, Venezuela oil exports, pdvsa, Venezuela sanctions Leave a comment
28 February

An IMO 2020 Holy Grail?



Josh Lowell

There is no single path for refiners preparing for the IMO’s upcoming global sulfur cap, which will take effect on January 1. Options range from pursuing expensive modernization projects that will further process high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) and produce more IMO-compliant fuels, to proceeding with a business-as-usual approach and hoping the market takes care of the IMO problem.

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Tagged heavy sweet crude, fuel oil, IMO 2020 2 Comments
25 February

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange

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Tagged Venezuela oil production, Venezuela sanctions, geopolitics, geopolitical tension Leave a comment
21 February

Challenges remain for Alunorte alumina refinery



Ron Coifman

The Alunorte refinery in Barcarena, Pará state, in northern Brazil, is not likely to return to full alumina production in the near future. The company cut production from full rates after heavy rains in early 2018 raised concerns about leakage from retention ponds and potential contamination to surrounding areas.

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Tagged brazil, mining, alumina Leave a comment
20 February

ClipperClip: Heavy Heavy



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box discussed the abundance of light crude amid a lack of heavy barrels ahead of IMO 2020. We also discussed signs of weaker oil demand from China and Germany, while Russia product exports ramp up. 

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Tagged OPEC, China product exports, US shale, US heavy crude imports, Venezuela sanctions, Iran sanctions, IMO 2020, light sweet crude 4 Comments
18 February

More Iraqi Crude to the US?



Noam Raydan

Asia receives the lion's share of Iraqi crude exports, accounting for nearly 60 percent of exports last year. Europe has been the second leading destination, accounting for nearly 20 percent of barrels, while flows to North America dropped last year to 14 percent.

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Tagged Iraq oil exports, geopolitics Leave a comment
18 February

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Continue Reading
Tagged Saudi Arabia, geopolitics, geopolitical tension, Iran crude exports Leave a comment
15 February

Sanciones contra Venezuela comienzan a tener efecto



Amir Richani

Las sanciones impuestas por los Estados Unidos a Venezuela y PdVSA comienzan a surtir efecto. Las importaciones de productos refinados del país sudamericano se detuvieron por 11 días, mientras que las importaciones de crudo venezolano a los Estados Unidos se han reducido considerablemente.

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Tagged venezuela crude exports, US imports of Venezuelan crude, Maduro, Guaido Leave a comment
14 February

The LSFO Terror



Josh Lowell

The IMO’s coming sulfur cap will shake up the global mix of marine fuels, pushing shipowners away from high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) and towards IMO-compliant marine fuels like marine gasoil (MGO) and low sulfur fuel oil (LSFO).

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Tagged bunker, IMO2020, LSFO, fuel oil Leave a comment
14 February

A Bit of Optimism for US Soybean Exports



Ken Smithmier

Recent forecasts for the Brazilian soybean crop have been falling, with the USDA currently projecting production at 117 million tonnes and CONAB at 115.3 million tonnes. Both of these estimates are down from last year’s record production of 120.80 million tonnes.

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Tagged Asia demand, Soybeans, Global Grain, US Exports Leave a comment
13 February

Insights into Global LNG Trade Flows



Kaleem Asghar

Global LNG exports were approximately 34 million tons in January 2019, loaded onto 500 vessels, while 35 million tons arrived at import terminals on 521 vessels.

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Tagged LNG exports, LNG 1 Comment
13 February

ClipperClip: Hope Springs Eternal



Matt Smith

I was on CNBC Squawk Box this morning discussing the current dynamics in the oil market and what the key takeaways are from the latest OPEC / IEA monthly oil reports (in combo with our flows data), as well as what could happen to prices over the rest of the year. 

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Tagged OPEC production cuts, US imports of Saudi crude Leave a comment
11 February

Sanctions on Venezuela Starting to Bite



Amir Richani

US sanctions on PdVSA and Venezuela are already having a significant impact. Imports of clean products into Venezuela were halted for 11 days from the end of January, while Venezuelan crude exports to the US have dropped considerably.  

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Tagged Venezuela diluent, Venezuela oil exports, Venezuela sanctions, venezuela crude exports, naphtha exports to Venezuela, US imports of Venezuelan crude 1 Comment
11 February

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Yellow

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Tagged US imports of Saudi crude, geopolitics, venezuela crude exports, geopolitical tension Leave a comment
08 February

ClipperClips: Ken's TV Trifecta



Matt Smith

Ken Smithmier has only been with the good ship ClipperData for a month, coming on board as our Director of Research for Agricultural Markets, but he is already making waves in the media.

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08 February

Se Redujeron Las Importaciones Mexicanas de Gasolina En Enero.



Amir Richani

En diciembre, el presidente de México Andrés Manuel López Obrador, conocido como AMLO, puso en marcha su nuevo plan para combatir el robo de combustible, o conocido en México como Huachicol, con el objetivo de recuperar los miles de millones de dólares que se pierden a raíz de esta actividad ilegal.

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Tagged Mexico gasoline imports, mexico product imports, AMLO 3 Comments
04 February

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange

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Tagged US heavy crude imports, pdvsa, geopolitical tension Leave a comment
04 February

Mexico Gasoline Import Weakness Persists



Amir Richani

In December, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, popularly known as AMLO, launched a plan to fight fuel theft across Mexico in an effort to offset the billions of dollars lost to the illicit activity during the previous administration. 

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Tagged Mexico gasoline imports, mexico product imports, AMLO Leave a comment
01 February

Light Barrels Doing Some Heavy Lifting



Noam Raydan

Libya’s overall oil and condensate exports through January have hit the brakes due to the ongoing force majeure at El Sharara, as well as the inclement weather that disrupted loadings at eastern ports earlier in the month.

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Tagged Nigeria crude exports, Libya oil exports, us crude exports, France crude imports, CPC Blend, Mesla 1 Comment
30 January

3 Reasons these IMO Patents are a Big Deal



Josh Lowell

Readers rejoice and put on your captain’s hats, for today’s edition of the ClipperBlog will step into the anxiety-fueled world of IMO 2020!

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Tagged bunker, IMO2020, LSFO, scrubbers 2 Comments
29 January

Preparing for the Worst



Ken Smithmier

Over the course of the 35-day US government shutdown, it was rumored that Chinese importers would buy the following:

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Tagged China tariffs, China customs data, Grain, Soybeans, Global Grain, china soybean imports, global oilseed exports, global oilseed loadings 1 Comment
28 January

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange

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Tagged pdvsa, venezuela crude exports, naphtha exports to Venezuela, Maduro, Guaido Leave a comment
24 January

Oil makes for a sticky situation in Venezuela



Amir Richani

Recognition of opposition leader Juan Guaido as the interim president of Venezuela by the United States, Canada and several right-leaning Latin American powers shows the tenure of Nicolas Maduro and the durability of Chavismo is under threat.

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Tagged Venezuela diluent, Venezuela sanctions, venezuela crude exports, naphtha exports to Venezuela, US imports of Venezuelan crude, Maduro 1 Comment
24 January

ClipperClip: Venezuela & the Energy Flows Involved



Matt Smith

I was out on CNBC Asia last evening discussing the current situation in Venezuela, and its path back to energy. We discussed the crude flows leaving the country, where they are going, and how dependent Venezuela is on the flow of diluent into the country from the US.

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Tagged Venezuela diluent, Venezuela sanctions, venezuela crude exports, naphtha exports to Venezuela, US imports of Venezuelan crude, Maduro, Guaido 2 Comments
22 January

ClipperClip: Mounting challenges in Venezuela



Amir Richani

Venezuela is coping with fuel shortages and declining exports during its struggle to prop up its ailing energy sector. Vessels initially bound for the United States have been seen diverting to Venezuela to help address the issue.

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21 January

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange

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Tagged China economy, economic data, geopolitics, geopolitical tension Leave a comment
16 January

ClipperClip: Talking AMLO, EIA



Matt Smith

I was on TD Ameritrade this morning, chatting with Ben Lichtenstein about Mexican gasoline imports and the current gasoline shortage there (something we discussed in my latest showing on NPR's Texas Standard on Monday - listen here).

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Tagged Mexico gasoline imports, US gasoline exports, us oil production, us crude exports, AMLO 1 Comment
16 January

Global slowdown reaches agricultural markets



Ken Smithmier

Only two weeks into 2019, and ClipperData is already beginning to see wide disparities in Chinese soybean offtake versus historical patterns. Week 1 offtake for China totaled 656,000 tonnes in 2019, compared to 1.12 million tonnes in 2018 and 1.45 million tonnes in 2017.

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Tagged ClipperBlog, China economy, Grain, Soybeans, Global Grain 1 Comment
15 January

Largest oilfield reflects instability in Libya



Noam Raydan

El Sharara, Libya’s largest oilfield, has been under force majeure since December 2018. The uncertainty surrounding oil flows from the field is a reflection of the instability and chaos that engulfs the entire country.

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Tagged OPEC, Libya, libya oil production, Libya crude exports 2 Comments
14 January

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, opec monthly report, OPEC production cuts, geopolitics, geopolitical tension Leave a comment
07 January

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange

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Tagged OPEC compliance, OPEC crude exports, geopolitics, saudi arabia crude exports, geopolitical tension 1 Comment
03 January

ClipperClip: Looking ahead and Reversing



Matt Smith

I had a great time on BNN Bloomberg today with Andrew Bell, he's a funny dude. We started off chatting about the key themes of this year, including the OPEC production cut and weakness in the Chinese economy, before shifting gears to electric vehicles, and the noise they make when they reverse.

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Tagged OPEC, electric vehicles, US shale Leave a comment
17 December

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange

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Tagged Russia, geopolitics, geopolitical tension, opec meeting Leave a comment
14 December

Trading Places



Matt Smith

Trading Places is the most popular trading (and presumably, Christmas) movie among energy traders (as proven by Anthony Crudele via his podcast interviews). So while we get into the holiday spirit, it seemed appropriate to highlight how energy flows have their own version of the movie plot playing out. 

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Tagged OPEC, OPEC oil exports, Libya oil exports, US LPG exports, US oil exports Leave a comment
12 December

ClipperClip: Running the Gamut



Matt Smith

We ran the gamut on the set of CNBC Squawk Box this morning, with Becky Quick again asking a bunch of really good questions as we covered everything from US inventories to OPEC, from US hedging to what could lie in store in 2019. 

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Tagged OPEC, nopec, us oil production, Iran sanctions, saudi arabia production Leave a comment
10 December

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange

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Tagged Saudi Arabia, geopolitics, China tariffs, geopolitical tension, Iran sanctions, opec meeting Leave a comment
07 December

Bringing Home the Bagels



Matt Smith

In keeping with PETA's recent announcement to remove speciesism, OPEC has ironed out the details of a production cut (the sequel), with higher prices meaning they will ultimately be 'bringing home the bagels'.

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Tagged OPEC, Saudi oil exports, Iraq oil exports 1 Comment
07 December

ClipperClip: Highwire Act



Matt Smith

I was out on CNBC Asia last night discussing the current OPEC meeting, and how Saudi Arabia is having to do a highwire act - trying to balance a production cut deal while not riling President Trump. Regardless of the outcome, someone isnt going to be pleased. 

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Tagged OPEC, Saudi crude oil exports, opec meeting Leave a comment
03 December

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: RED

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Tagged us oil production, geopolitics, saudi arabia crude exports, Russia crude exports, geopolitical tension, opec meeting Leave a comment
01 December

Make Pemex Great Again!



Amir Richani

Popular Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) takes power today facing major energy and economic challenges. The incoming president wants to break the energy sector’s dependence on the United States, while at the same time addressing fuel theft and Pemex's poor track record for getting things done.

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Tagged Mexico gasoline imports, mexico crude exports, AMLO 4 Comments
30 November

Up, Up and Away



Matt Smith

Back in November 2016, we discussed how global loadings were at a record ahead of the OPEC / NOPEC production cut deal, as exporters put the pedal to the metal, exporting as much crude as they could before having to hit the brakes.

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Tagged Saudi oil exports, Saudi oil production, oil in transit, crude floating storage Leave a comment
26 November

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: RED

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Tagged Saudi Arabia oil production, OPEC oil production, oil prices, Iran sanctions, opec meeting Leave a comment
26 November

ClipperClip: Follow the flows



Matt Smith

How ace is Becky Quick?! We had a great back-and-forth this morning on CNBC Squawk Box re rising oil in transit, and why it is currently a bearish, not bullish signal. We also discussed the current quandary facing Saudi Arabia, as well as the challenges facing US producers.

 

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Tagged OPEC, Saudi Arabia oil production, global floating storage, saudi arabia crude exports, opec meeting, oil in transit Leave a comment
20 November

New Chinese Dawn in Bolsonaro's Brazil



Amir Richani

Even though the election of president-elect Jair Bolsonaro has generated anti-Chinese rhetoric in Brazil, strong economic ties between the two countries means divorce is unlikely.

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Tagged China crude oil imports, China oil demand, China oil imports, Brazil oil exports, Brazil crude oil exports, China economy, china crude imports Leave a comment
19 November

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Yellow-Elevated

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Tagged Iran oil exports, Saudi Arabia oil production, US imports of Saudi crude, geopolitics, geopolitical tension, Iran crude exports Leave a comment
15 November

Misdirection of Houdini-sized proportions



Matt Smith

Whether intentional or not, the US administration has played their hand masterfully. Since the early October highs, oil prices have dropped over 25 percent, paving the way for a 25 cent drop in retail gasoline prices (with a cascade to come). 

While a number of supply and demand-side considerations have caused such a stark reversal in both market sentiment and prices, the role of the U.S....

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Tagged Saudi oil production, Russia oil production, Iran oil exports, OPEC crude exports Leave a comment
14 November

ClipperClips: A Royal Rout



Matt Smith

In the aftermath of oil prices dropping for 12 consecutive days I appeared on CNBC Asia overnight and then CNBC Squawk Box this morning, addressing the various reasons why oil has fallen so far from its multi-year perch in the last six weeks. Hark, click on the below mugshots to launch to the clips.

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Tagged Saudi Arabia oil production, OPEC oil demand growth, OPEC crude exports Leave a comment
12 November

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange-High

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Tagged OPEC production, Russia oil exports, us oil production, geopolitics, geopolitical tension Leave a comment
05 November

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange-High

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Tagged Russia oil production, Iran, OPEC supply growth, geopolitics, geopolitical tension, Iran crude exports, Iran sanctions Leave a comment
01 November

Crack whacked as surplus back



Matt Smith

With the U.S. gasoline market in a state of plentiful supply, the front month Rbob gasoline crack spread (the gauge for the profitability of refining gasoline) has dropped below $10/bbl (vs WTI) for the first time since early 2017. 

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Tagged US gasoline exports, us refinery runs, rbob crack spread Leave a comment
29 October

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange-High

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Tagged OPEC oil demand growth, geopolitics, saudi arabia crude exports, geopolitical tension, Iran sanctions 1 Comment
25 October

Dude, Where's my Sour?



Matt Smith

Scary times lay ahead, as Halloween looms and Iranian sanctions beckon.  Despite a lesser drop-off in Iranian exports than expected, they still appear set for a roller coaster ride lower as we hurtle through November. With this white-knuckle ride in mind, shifts in crude flows have been underway as end-users make arrangements so they aren't left wondering: Dude, where's my sour?*

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Tagged Iran oil exports, Urals, CPC Blend crude exports, Asia oil demand, Indian oil imports Leave a comment
22 October

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Yellow-Elevated

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Tagged geopolitics, saudi arabia crude exports, geopolitical tension Leave a comment
18 October

ClipperClip: Saudi, Stocks and Shocks



Matt Smith

I was on the set of CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, discussing the oil market and the myriad of current influences. We discussed everything from rising US inventories to the potential of sanctions on Saudi. Contrary to Joe's belief, my voice was louder than my vest.

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Tagged Saudi Arabia oil exports, US oil inventories Leave a comment
16 October

Increasing Tensions, Increasing Flows



Matt Smith

I was on CNBC Asia on Sunday evening as oil prices jumped higher, discussing how the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi was unlikely to impact energy flows between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. 

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Tagged China oil imports, Saudi oil exports, Japan oil imports, India oil imports, Iran oil exports, Iraq oil exports 3 Comments
15 October

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange - High

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Tagged crude oil exports, US imports of Saudi crude, OPEC crude exports, geopolitics, saudi arabia crude exports, geopolitical tension, Iran sanctions Leave a comment
08 October

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange - High

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Tagged Asia demand, crude oil exports, oil prices, geopolitics, us dollar, geopolitical tension, Iran crude exports, Iran sanctions Leave a comment
01 October

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange - High

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Tagged OPEC oil production, crude oil exports, us oil production, OPEC crude exports, us crude exports, geopolitics, steel tariffs, geopolitical tension, Iran crude exports, US Gulf Coast crude export capacity, Iran sanctions Leave a comment
25 September

ClipperClips: Oil's OPEC Overreaction



Matt Smith

As Brent crude pushed to multi-year highs yesterday, it was the topic of conversation on my every-other-Monday-morning segment on NPR's Texas Standard, as well as on CNBC Asia last night.

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Tagged OPEC, Iran oil exports, spare capacity, saudi arabia crude exports 1 Comment
24 September

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange - High

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Tagged Iran oil production, oil inventories, US shale, oil, Arab Gulf crude exports, OPEC oil production, OPEC crude exports, geopolitics, geopolitical tension, Iran crude exports, Strait of Hormuz Leave a comment
17 September

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Yellow - Elevated

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Tagged OPEC crude exports, geopolitics, Russia crude exports, us natural gas exports, geopolitical tension, Iran crude exports, Iran sanctions 1 Comment
10 September

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to the new home of The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Dan has a long history in oil markets and an academic background in international relations theory. Apart from energy, he's contributed to the discussion on the foreign policy strategy of...

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Tagged crude oil exports, US imports of Saudi crude, Libya crude exports, oil prices, OPEC crude exports, geopolitics, us dollar Leave a comment
09 September

Flogging a Dead Cow



Matt Smith

Amir Richani is the author of today's blog post. Amir is a geopolitical analyst at ClipperData, with a voracious appetite for studying political, economic and social developments in Latin America. He holds a BA in Political Studies, his favorite thing to eat is seafood soup, and his most treasured place in the world is Angel Falls in Venezuela. 

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Tagged geopolitics, geopolitical tension, Vaca Muerta, Argentina oil exports, Argentina oil imports 1 Comment
24 August

I Drink Your Milkshake!



Matt Smith

The splendidly-directed movie 'There Will Be Blood' by P.T. Anderson is about the early days of the oil boom.

There is an epic scene between actors Daniel Day Lewis and Paul Dano, in which Daniel Day Lewis says: 'I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!'. 

This is a century-old hat-tip to directional oil drilling, as Daniel Day Lewis' character has used slant drilling to drain an oil reservoir under an...

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, Iran oil exports, Iraq oil exports Leave a comment
17 August

Mixed Fortunes for Flows to China



Matt Smith

Our friends over at Ursa published a blog post yesterday discussing crude inventories at Kyaukphyu in Myanmar, highlighting the seeming political nature of recent crude flows to the storage hub. 

Crude is delivered to CNPC's Kabala terminal in Myanmar and is stored at Kyaukphyu before being transported by pipeline to the Yunnan refinery in China. 

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Tagged China oil imports, Iran oil exports, US oil exports 1 Comment
16 August

ClipperClips: Chi-Town & China



Matt Smith

I was in Chicago yesterday giving a keynote speech at a conference, so I grabbed the opportunity to swing by the TD Ameritrade Network and meet Ben Lichtenstein in person. 

We did a segment covering all manner of things (as per usual) - including China, the US dollar, inventories, OPEC and gasoline. 

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Tagged China oil imports, US LNG exports, Iran oil exports, US gasoline exports, OPEC crude exports 1 Comment
03 August

OPEC takes a new tack with higher exports



Matt Smith

After OPEC crude exports hit a record in June, ongoing strength in July seems to affirm a new trend, as opposed to a flash in the pan. 

June's pre-OPEC meeting export ramp-up was pretty spectacular, propelling June's exports over 1.5 million barrels per day higher than May.

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Tagged Iran oil exports, Iraq oil exports, OPEC crude exports 2 Comments
01 August

US oil exports rise to India, drop to China



Matt Smith

The VLCC Tianjin left the Corpus Christi lightering zone in the Gulf of Mexico on June 19 with nearly 2.1 million barrels of US WTI / Midland WTI crude on board. It has just discharged its cargo at Reliance's Jamnagar refinery in India, sneaking in before the end of the July to mark a record month of deliveries of US barrels to India. 

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Tagged India crude imports, china crude imports, us crude exports 1 Comment
27 July

ClipperClip: Covering all bases



Matt Smith

I really look forward to talking to Ben Lichtenstein or Kevin Hincks on the TD Ameritrade Network; they come at things from a trading perspective, and always have their finger on the pulse. We covered all bases in this latest interview - from trade wars to Iranian tensions to Saudi's tactics to Brent's contango and gasoline.

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Tagged Saudi oil exports, Iran sanctions, Strait of Hormuz, contango, rbob Leave a comment
24 July

ClipperClip: Hormuz closure unlikely



Matt Smith

Last night's appearance on CNBC Asia addressed certain presidential tweets relating to the oil market. While the U.S. threatens to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero, Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz -  neither scenario seems likely. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to part of the interview.  

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Tagged Iran sanctions, Strait of Hormuz Leave a comment
02 July

Water Problems Stoke Unrest in Iran



Matt Smith

Today's blog is a guest post by Noam Raydan, Geopolitical Analyst at ClipperData, who assesses current escalating tension in Iran amid water concerns in the oil-rich southern region of the country. 

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Tagged Iran oil production, Iran sanctions 1 Comment
28 June

Chinese Customs Data to Remain Errant



Matt Smith

As the U.S. Administration requests its allies to stop purchasing Iranian crude, China may inadvertently be helping out Iran as it has halted the publication of its detailed customs data

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Tagged Iran crude exports, China customs data Leave a comment
26 June

US Gulf Coast crude export capacity



Matt Smith

Today's blog is a guest post by Yuwen Li. He is a Data Analyst at ClipperData, specializing in domestic crude flows and U.S. crude exports. Yuwen holds a B.S. in Civil Engineering from Qingdao Technological University in China, and a M.S. in Financial Engineering from NYU. 

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Tagged us crude exports, US Gulf Coast crude export capacity 1 Comment
26 June

ClipperClip: World Cup Analogies



Matt Smith

In this morning's appearance on the set of CNBC's Squawk Box, I used the analogy of OPEC being a soccer team - some member's exports are on the defensive (Iran, Angola, Nigeria, et al), while others are on the attack (core OPEC). 

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Tagged US oil exports, OPEC crude exports, saudi arabia crude exports Leave a comment
21 June

Saudi's pre-OPEC meeting ramp up



Matt Smith

As discussed on CNBC Asia last night, Core OPEC has been ramping up exports this month ahead of tomorrow's OPEC meeting in Vienna. Historically, production typically rises ahead of an OPEC quota hike, and this time looks no different. 

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Tagged Saudi crude exports, OPEC oil exports Leave a comment
21 June

ClipperClip: OPEC cuts already being unwound



Matt Smith

Last night's appearance on CNBC Asia highlighted that OPEC is definitely going to unwind the production cut deal. In fact, it appears they already have.

Historically, production rises ahead of an OPEC quota increase, and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE - the key proponents of the OPEC production cut deal - are all showing significantly higher crude exports so far this month, as spigots are opened...

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Tagged Saudi oil exports, Kuwait oil exports, UAE oil exports, OPEC production cuts, OPEC oil production 1 Comment
19 June

Chinese Tariffs and US Energy Flows



Matt Smith

Tensions were already running high betwixt the U.S. and China before trade threats were ratcheted up once more this week. As we know all too well, all paths lead back to energy: hence commodity flows will likely feel the brunt of the current collywobbles.

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Tagged US LNG exports, US LPG exports, US oil exports, china crude imports Leave a comment
19 June

ClipperClips: OPEC & M'OPEC



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box once again addressed the notion of 'don't fight the Falih', and the likelihood of Saudi and Russia dialing back on production cuts at Friday's semi-annual meeting.  

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Tagged OPEC production cuts, Iraq crude exports, OPEC crude exports, saudi arabia crude exports 1 Comment
08 June

A Sneak Peek at ClipperView



Matt Smith

The mighty Abudi Zein and myself are back on the road next week for our semi-annual tour, providing a six-month proprietary outlook on oil and product markets. To give you a flavor of some of the topics we will be covering, hark, check out a couple of the charts below.

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Tagged OPEC crude exports, us crude exports, ClipperView, Canadian crude exports 5 Comments
25 May

ClipperClip: Levels of Significance



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box covered levels of significance, as Brent tests $80/bbl and retail gasoline $3/gal. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip, before Joe Kernen went off on a tangent...!

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, Iran, CNBC, venezuela crude exports Leave a comment
24 May

About those Iranian and Venezuelan Flows



Matt Smith

The threat of falling oil supply from both Iran and Venezuela looms large amid geopolitical tension, economic fears and sanctions. All the while, both are scrambling to maintain flows to key destinations. Below we take a peek at some such routes, and how flows could change.

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Tagged US imports of Venezuelan crude, Iran crude exports Leave a comment
22 May

ClipperClips: Pumping Prices



Matt Smith

Nutty times in the oil market (again). Yesterday morning I was out on NPR's Texas Standard discussing retail gasoline prices as they approach the $3/gallon handle, you can listen to the segment here. I also appeared on CNBC Asia last night, discussing the slow-motion car crash that is Venezuela, among other things. 

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Tagged Iran oil exports, venezuela crude exports, naphtha exports to Venezuela Leave a comment
15 May

Guest blog: Election Throws Iraq into Uncertainty



Matt Smith

This is a guest blog by Noam Raydan, Geopolitical Analyst at ClipperData. She focuses on political and security developments that could disrupt petroleum flows around the globe. She previously worked as a reporter for the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times at their Beirut bureaus, covering Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. She has also been a research analyst and consultant, focusing on...

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Tagged Iraq elections, Iraq oil industry Leave a comment
30 April

Electric Avenue



Matt Smith

A Bloomberg article about electric buses in China is getting a good amount of mileage (sorry), and rightly so, given its detrimental impact on product demand (hark, ~70kbd this year). While China increases its focus on electric vehicles and takes aim at fuel emissions, it is also becoming a bigger player in the global fuels market, as exports increase amid higher domestic refining activity.  

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Tagged China product exports, China refinery runs, Ursa 1 Comment
25 April

Don't Fight the Falih



Matt Smith

As oil prices hover close to multi-year highs, Saudi's Oil Minister has hit the wires saying that OPEC 'shouldn't be complacent and listen to some of the noise such as mission accomplished' . Just as we learned earlier in this economic cycle via 'don't fight the Fed', we too should take heed: 'Don't fight the Falih'.

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Tagged Saudi crude exports, US crude imports, OPEC crude exports Leave a comment
20 April

ClipperClip: Tension and Tariffs



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on CNBC's Worldwide Exchange hit the typical high notes re US output and and geopolitical tension, but we also discussed tariffs - and how a potential trade war could impact energy flows to China. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip - while also check out the charts below of propane and crude flows referenced:

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Tagged Saudi Aramco IPO, China tariffs, geopolitical tension 2 Comments
13 April

ClipperClips: Here and There



Matt Smith

I was on the set of CNBC Squawk Box this morning talking about the oil forward curve and gasoline fuel economy, as well as being on CNBC Asia last night, discussing geopolitical tension.

Being Friday the 13th, there were ghoulish events going on: Hark, click on the ghost over my left shoulder to launch to the clip for Squawk Box (is the second half of the segment), while the CNBC Asia clip is...

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Tagged gasoline demand, geopolitics Leave a comment
29 March

ClipperVlog: Venezuela



Matt Smith

Today's vlog takes a look at Venezuelan flows, not only of exports, but of diluent imports as the Latin American nation tries to keep its exports flowing amid falling production. Hark, click on the below graphic to launch to the clip (and here is a link to yesterday's 'This Week in Petroleum').

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Tagged venezuela crude exports, naphtha exports to Venezuela 2 Comments
28 March

ClipperVlog: US Crude Export Trends



Matt Smith

Happy Middle O'Week! In an effort to bring our ClipperData to life a bit more, here's an inaugural vlogpost discussing a Wall Street Journal article from earlier this week about US oil exports, which was based on our data. We also take a look at some of the current and emerging trends we see.

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Tagged Asia oil imports, us crude exports 2 Comments
23 March

A China Benchmark and Basrah Light



Matt Smith

After being in the works for well over half a decade, China is finally launching its own crude futures contract next week, with the ultimate goal of creating a yuan-denominated global crude benchmark. The contract will comprise of seven grades that can be accepted for delivery: Dubai Fateh, Upper Zakum, Oman Export, Masila, Qatar Marine, Shengli and Basrah Light.

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Tagged Oman oil exports, Basrah heavy, basrah light Leave a comment
20 March

Out of the Basin and into the Sink



Matt Smith

At the good ship Clipper, we like to look at flows from two perspectives: sinks and sources. The sources are the main origins of the flows: The key exporting regions such as the Middle East, Latin America and West Africa. As for the sinks, they are key regions to which these barrels drain into. 

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Tagged angola crude exports, west african crude exports Leave a comment
15 March

Sweet! Crude!



Matt Smith

'IMO 2020' is going to usher in a mammoth sea change for the global petroleum market. On January 1, 2020, the International Maritime Organization (hark, IMO) - the agency that regulates the global shipping market - will enforce a global sulfur cap of 0.5% on marine fuels.

While this is this going to have the biggest impact on fuel oil and middle distillates, it is also going to influence the...

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Tagged heavy sweet crude 4 Comments
09 March

The more things change...



Matt Smith

In the latter half of last year, we highlighted how Saudi deliveries to Motiva's Port Arthur refinery had been surpassed by Iraqi barrels for the first time on our records. While this trend has now reversed, when it comes to total OPEC flows, the more things change, the more they stay the same. 

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Tagged Saudi crude exports, US crude imports, Iraq crude exports Leave a comment
07 March

ClipperClips: All Shook Up 



Matt Smith

After yesterday morning's appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box talking supply and demand, I book-ended the day with an evening appearance on CNBC Asia. Steel tariffs remained front and center, particularly as Gary Cohn's resignation hit the wires about 7 seconds before the interview started...

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Tagged steel tariffs, texas standard, us natural gas exports Leave a comment
06 March

ClipperClip: The Bigger Picture 



Matt Smith

I was on the set of CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, doing a trading block segment with currency guru Nick Bennenbroek. We avoided the 800-pound gorilla in the room - the impact of tariffs on the energy industry - with anchor Joe Kernen instead focusing on global demand and supply. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip.   

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Tagged US shale production, OPEC crude exports 1 Comment
02 March

The Och Aye Nessie Formation



Matt Smith

I've had some great interactions with readers lately, be it via blog comments or on Twitter. These discussions inevitably spur on a topic or two to dig into. Hence a recent blog comment has prompted this reply. Hark Och aye, read on! 

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Tagged Saldanha Bay, crude oil storage 1 Comment
22 February

OPEC, NOPEC, Rock'n Roll!



Matt Smith

I was jesting the other day about who would be on guitar in OPEC's supergroup, but it got me thinking about the various global oil producers, and how their traits could be reflective of their musicianship. This is where it led me...

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Tagged Libya crude exports, angola crude exports, Russia crude exports 4 Comments
20 February

ClipperClip: Hotspots and Supergroups



Matt Smith

Every other week I kick off Mondays with a segment on NPR's Texas Standard. This morning we discussed OPEC's forming of a 'supergroup', and who would be on guitar (part of that statement is true).

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Tagged OPEC, nopec Leave a comment
16 February

Saudi exports muddy the waters



Matt Smith

Saudi Arabia continues to keep the market informed about its stance on the OPEC production cut deal, with Khalid al-Falih's latest guidance that Saudi would prefer to overtighten the market than exit early from cuts (channeling Neil Young's 'it's better to burn out than fade away'). 

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Tagged Saudi Arabia oil exports, US imports of Saudi crude, Saudi Aramco IPO 3 Comments
14 February

A Passage from India



Matt Smith

Indian oil demand rose over 10 percent in January, up for a fourth consecutive month. Although much of the magnitude of the year-on-year improvement is due to last year's low base, with consumption in January 2017 hamstrung by the hangover of demonetization, the upward trend signals ongoing strength in the Indian economy.

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Tagged India oil exports, India middle distillate exports, India gasoline exports Leave a comment
12 February

Go East! 



Matt Smith

We recently discussed Iraqi flows to the U.S., and how they continue to exhibit strength. Iraqi flows to the U.S. last year averaged just under 600,000 bpd, up a third from 2016's volume. While January deliveries were robust, clambering above 700,000 bpd, they were even more impressive to Asia, rising to a record. 

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Tagged Iraq oil exports, Basrah heavy, India crude imports, basrah light, china crude imports Leave a comment
12 February

ClipperClip: Short Sharp Shock



Matt Smith

It's always nice to kick off the week with an appearance on CNBC Squawk Box (even if Joe makes fun of my vests). In this morning's segment we discussed the recent sell-off in crude prices amid broader market turmoil. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to a short clip. 

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Tagged oil prices, us dollar Leave a comment
05 February

OPEC crude exports to US remain choppy



Matt Smith

Back at the start of December, we discussed how Venezuelan crude deliveries to the U.S. were sliding, and particularly to Citgo refineries.  December ended up being the lowest level of Venezuelan grades to the U.S. on our records, as total Venezuelan crude exports dropped under 1.1 million barrels per day.

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Tagged OPEC, Saudi Arabia oil exports, US oil imports Leave a comment
02 February

(Another) 100 million barrels



Matt Smith

Back in December we discussed how US oil inventories had been drawn down by a hundred million barrels from their peak last March, channeling Dr Evil from Austin Powers.

In recent weeks we have been on tour, presenting our six-month proprietary outlook, and have been highlighting the case of another 100 million barrels - this time via the cumulative drop in Saudi crude exports over the last...

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Tagged market rebalancing, Saudi Arabia oil exports, Libya oil exports, OPEC compliance, impact alerts Leave a comment
02 February

ClipperClip: A little bit of everything



Matt Smith

I've started doing segments on TD Ameritrade's network; they are really good fun. The interviews are typically ten minutes long, so we get to cover a variety of different topics. In this latest one, we dig into the US, OPEC, and all manner of things relating to oil markets, after an initial knee-jerk reaction to the latest economic data releases. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to...

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Tagged refinery maintenance season, us oil production, OPEC crude exports, us dollar Leave a comment
30 January

Mexico's import-export see-saw



Matt Smith

U.S. gasoline exports averaged just over one million barrels per day in 2017, with a strong push higher at the end of the year (hark, an average of 1.3mn bpd in Q4). As exports registered their highest month of loadings on our records in December, they outpaced middle distillate exports for the first time since November 2016.

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Tagged us product exports, mexico crude exports 2 Comments
19 January

An unenviable accolade



Matt Smith

Yesterday's monthly oil market report from OPEC showed that oil production from Kazakhstan likely increased by 180,000 bpd in 2017 to 1.74 million barrels per day. Such a rise gives Kazakhstan the unenviable accolade of being the most out-of-compliance producer in the OPEC / NOPEC production cut deal - surpassing Iraq (some feat).

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Tagged OPEC, nopec, Kazakhstan oil production Leave a comment
19 January

ClipperClip: Running out of Steam



Matt Smith

I had a good ole run at it on CNBC Asia last night with Bernie Lo, chatting about OPEC, US producer hedging, geopolitical tension, and how the crude rally looks like it is running out of steam here.

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Tagged OPEC crude exports, saudi arabia crude exports Leave a comment
17 January

Colombia crude exports drop amid unrest



Matt Smith

Crude exports out of Colombia in recent years have averaged just over 600,000 barrels per day, with exports typically highest in January, before gradually descending through the year. To start this year, however, export volumes have dropped off considerably, as unrest rises up in the country once more. 

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Tagged vasconia, us crude exports, colombia crude exports, castilla Leave a comment
15 January

A Peek at ClipperView



Matt Smith

We are again on the road this month, presenting our six-month proprietary outlook for global oil and products, driven by the trends we see in our ClipperData. We will be covering various commodities, from crude oil to fuel oil, from gasoline to LPG and beyond, as well as emerging trends we see across various geographies, including Europe, Asia and the Americas.

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Tagged US crude imports, Chinese gasoline exports, Asia fuel demand, Chinese gasoline imports Leave a comment
12 January

LNG to add to Russian energy flows to the US



Matt Smith

The potential first delivery of Russian LNG to U.S. shores is ruffling some feathers, due to sanctions in place on Novatek, one of the partners in the Yamal LNG terminal - the apparent origin of the LNG heading to the Everett LNG terminal in Boston.  While sanctions may still be in place with certain Russian entities, the U.S. is a regular recipient of Russian oil and products. 

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Tagged US crude imports, US gasoline imports, naphtha, Yamal LNG terminal, russia lng exports 1 Comment
10 January

Angola Unpegged 



Matt Smith

In an effort to shore up dwindling reserves, Angola has decided to unpeg its currency, the kwanza, from the U.S. dollar - a peg which has been in place since April 2016

Angola's foreign exchange reserves have halved since 2014, as the West African nation has attempted to defend the kwanza versus the U.S. dollar. Unpegging the currency has caused a swift 10 percent weakening in the currency,...

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Tagged Angola oil exports, kwanza Leave a comment
09 January

New twists in OPEC flows



Matt Smith

Last week, we discussed changing trends in Iraqi crude flows into AsiaTotal deliveries of OPEC crude to China rose last year by 300,000 bpd, as cartel members looked to keep one of its key growth markets well supplied.

Even though Iraqi deliveries into China reached the highest on our records in November at a million barrels per day, arrivals in 2017 were actually down versus the prior year,...

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Tagged China oil imports, OPEC exports, Saudi crude exports, OPEC exports to the US Leave a comment
05 January

A Tale of Two Cities



Matt Smith

It is both the best and worst of times for the current Iraqi oil market. Iraqi oil minister Jabbar al-Luaibi said this week that Iraqi oil fields in the south of the country had recorded an 'unprecedented' surge in daily exports from Basrah during the last month. All the while, loadings in Ceyhan, Turkey, of crude from the Kirkuk pipeline in the north of the country continue to remain in check...

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Tagged Basrah heavy, basrah light, Iraq crude exports, kirkuk crude Leave a comment
03 January

ClipperClip: Iran Concerns



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box was amusing, as we were supposed to do a segment on US natural gas amid the impending 'bomb cyclone', but anchor Joe Kernen didn't want to. Instead we discussed one of ClipperData's big concerns for this year - the impact of geopolitical tension on the oil market, now that we are closer to balance. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the...

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Tagged Iran oil production, geopolitics 1 Comment
21 December

ClipperClip: 100 million barrels



Matt Smith

I got to chat with my buddy, the mighty Dan Murphy, on CNBC Asia last night, and we covered a fair bit of ground: US crude inventories and the role of exports in reducing them, the Forties pipeline outage and who will plug the gap, and how Saudi must be feeling about the oil market (spoiler alert: absolutely delighted). Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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Tagged Saudi oil exports, US oil exports, us product exports, Forties pipeline outage 1 Comment
20 December

LNG imports reflect rising Chinese demand 



Matt Smith

Official data out this week show that Chinese natural gas consumption has surged through the first eleven months of 2017, up 19 percent year-on-year.

China is the third largest consumer of natural gas in the world, behind the U.S. and Russia, and is expected to show the strongest demand growth over the coming decades - propelling it into second place by 2040.   

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Tagged LNG exports, Qatar LNG exports, Australia LNG exports 1 Comment
14 December

ClipperClip: Beverly Hills Cop



Matt Smith

On the set of CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, I explained how US net imports of crude and products haven't been this low since Beverly Hills Cop was number one at the box office - in February 1985.

It turns out that Beverly Hills Cop is Andrew Ross Sorkin's favorite movie, Joe Kernen hated the sequels, and Becky Quick guessed the right year.

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Tagged CNBC, us net oil and product imports 2 Comments
13 December

US Exports Continue to Evolve



Matt Smith

CNBC published an article late last week based on our ClipperData, highlighting how deliveries of U.S. crude grades into China climbed to a record in November.

As U.S. crude and product export markets evolve, new patterns in loadings, destinations, grades and purchasing present themselves in our granular data. 

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Tagged US LNG exports, china crude imports, us crude exports Leave a comment
08 December

Push-me-pull-you Mexico flows



Matt Smith

Mexican energy flows are reminiscent of Dr. Dolittle's mythical animal, the push-me-pull-you, as they are beckoned and ushered in contrasting directions. 

U.S. imports of Mexican crude last month climbed above 800,000 bpd for the first time since November 2014. This is the result of a number of factors, but in large part due to hurricane disruptions in recent months.

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Tagged Mexico gasoline imports, Mexico oil exports, mexico Leave a comment
06 December

No holiday cheer for US from OPEC



Matt Smith

After the dust has settled on last week's OPEC meeting, the cartel's impact on U.S. oil inventories is set to linger on. Stocks are at their lowest level since January 2016, and are down over 80 million barrels from their peak in March - in spite of a 30 million barrel injection from the SPR.

As we head into the holiday season, the U.S. should expect little in the way of holiday cheer from...

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Tagged OPEC, Saudi Arabia oil exports, Iraq oil exports, OPEC exports to the US Leave a comment
01 December

Lower Flows Highlight Venezuelan Plight



Matt Smith

Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro said this week that PdVSA is willing to retaliate against financial sanctions from the U.S. by suspending oil exports to the country, sending crude to Asia instead.

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Tagged Venezuela oil exports, US oil imports, pdvsa Leave a comment
01 December

ClipperClip: Much Ado About Nothing



Matt Smith

Last night's appearance on CNBC Asia addressed the developments - or lack thereof - from yesterday's OPEC meeting, and what could happen next year. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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Tagged OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia Leave a comment
30 November

OPEC #winning?



Matt Smith

The mood in Vienna this week is considerably more chipper than it was in June. This is because the cartel appears - in the words of Charlie Sheen - to be #winning.   

But it hasn't all been plain sailing. In fact, it's been decidedly choppy. From an export perspective, certain cartel members have made a concerted effort to keep crude off the market,  while others have blatantly not. Saudi...

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Tagged OPEC, OPEC exports Leave a comment
29 November

ClipperClip: All about Saudi



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box addressed the impending OPEC meeting, and how Saudi continues to lead the charge in the production cut, and will dictate the shots going forward. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to part of the clip:

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Tagged Saudi Arabia oil exports, Venezuela oil exports, Iraq oil exports, Iran oil production Leave a comment
17 November

Changing Trends in Iraqi Crude and Fuel Oil Exports



Matt Smith

Since the Kurdish referendum in late September, when Iraqi Kurds overwhelmingly voted for independence from Iraq, there has been a drop in crude flows through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, as tension has ratcheted up in the region.

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Tagged Iraq, Kirkuk oil, Iraq crude exports, Kurdistan, iraq fuel oil exports Leave a comment
09 November

Booming US product exports



Matt Smith

The U.S. export boom continues apace. And not only from crude exports, which clambered above 2 million barrels per day in recent weeks, but from the product piece of the pie too. Joining rising gasoline and distillate exports from the U.S. has been LPG. And not just propane or butane, but ethane as well - as our ClipperData illustrate below. 

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Tagged US gasoline exports, US middle distillate exports, US propane exports, US ethane exports Leave a comment
07 November

Contrasting crude flows from Saudi and Iraq



Matt Smith
We've been harping on in recent weeks about how Saudi has been slashing crude flows to North America, but as we can see in  our ClipperData below, it has been cutting flows to other key markets too.
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Tagged Saudi crude exports, Iraq oil exports, china crude imports Leave a comment
03 November

Changing crude grades to US shores



Matt Smith

Last week we discussed how flows from Saudi Arabia into the U.S. were about to be surpassed by Iraq for the first time since 1985 (teeing up Back to the Future / Carly Simon / Tears for Fears references). With October closing out, this has now become fact. Such a reversal highlights Saudi Arabia's ongoing willingness to give up market share...even if other cartel members are not.

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Tagged US crude imports, API crude grades Leave a comment
30 October

On the road



Matt Smith

I've been on the road - on walkabout as the Australians would say - for the last four weeks, doing a number of speaking engagements and trips across America. As we all know, all paths lead back to energy,  hence, on my travels I have seen a bunch of energy infrastructure that I normally just study on a screen. Hark, here are some of those places, and some corresponding insights via our...

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Tagged US crude imports, US gasoline exports, ExxonMobil Baton Rouge refinery, Texas refineries, PES Philadelphia refinery, Phillips 66 Bayway refinery, US middle distillate exports 7 Comments
26 October

Back to the Future



Matt Smith

Wowee, 1985 showed a rich vein of form for movies. It was the year that spawned The Goonies, The Breakfast Club,  Spies Like Us, Fletch and Back to the Future. It is Michael J Fox's breakthrough movie as Marty McFly which is particularly appropriate this month, given an event that is unfolding in the oil market which has not occurred in the last 32 years. 

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24 October

ClipperClip: To Aramco...and beyond!



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on the set of CNBC Squawk Box started off discussing Saudi Aramco's IPO next year, and ended up covering global demand growth, and the unusual places it is coming through from. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip: 

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Tagged OPEC, Saudi Arabia oil exports, Saudi Aramco IPO 1 Comment
12 October

Saudi crude exports drop to key regions



Matt Smith

Saudi Arabia continues to lead the charge in terms of the OPEC production cut deal - not only by keeping exports in check, but also by clearly communicating its next steps. By following through on its rhetoric, it has brought some much-needed credibility to the production cut deal - despite a lack of commitment from some other members.   

 

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Tagged Saudi Arabia, Iraq crude exports, OPEC crude exports Leave a comment
12 October

ClipperClip: US oil exports rip



Matt Smith

Yesterday evening's appearance on CNBC Asia covered two key topics: OPEC and the US. While the monthly OPEC report had something for both bulls and bears, the US is in an intriguing situation where crude imports are lower while exports are higher. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to part of the interview:

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28 September

Elasticated Exports



Matt Smith

It is now a little over a month after Hurricane Harvey made landfall on the US Gulf Coast. While some refineries are still in the process of ramping up activities, refining utilization is clambering back higher towards historical norms. This improvement is being reflected through in higher crude and product flows, with product export activity looking particularly elasticated, snapping back...

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Tagged US crude imports, US gasoline exports, us diesel exports, US gulf coast refinery runs 1 Comment
27 September

Oman's multi-year high



Matt Smith

Oman is the largest oil producer in the Middle East that is not a member of OPEC. It is also part of the OPEC / NOPEC production cut deal, committing to a 45,000 barrel-per-day cut from its output level of just over one million barrels per day. This equates to an export cut of about 36,000 bpd, according to our calculations.

The price of the Omani crude benchmark has just rallied to over a...

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Tagged China oil demand, Oman oil exports, Angola oil exports 1 Comment
26 September

Changing Iraqi crude flows



Matt Smith

Brent crude prices were propelled to a two-year high yesterday, triggered by concerns about a Kurdish referendum vote to seek independence from Iraq. Although the vote is non-binding, a yes vote would pave the way for negotiations to secede from Iraq.

Neighboring countries such as Iran and Turkey are against the referendum, fearing that it will stoke separatist sentiment among the Kurdish...

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Tagged Basrah heavy, basrah light, Iraq crude exports, US imports of Iraqi crude Leave a comment
14 September

ClipperClip: KSA IPO



Matt Smith

Last evening's appearance on CNBC Asia covered everything from the weekly U.S. inventory report, to Jim Chanos' bearish view on US shale producers. The segment below, however, addressed the announcement that Saudi Arabia's IPO may be pushed back until 2019. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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Tagged OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Aramco, oil prices 1 Comment
14 September

Returning to normalcy on the US Gulf Coast



Matt Smith

Nearly twenty days (or over 450 hours) after Hurricane Harvey made landfall betwixt between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor in Texas, there are a number of signs emerging in our ClipperData that the refinery hub of the U.S. is returning to some semblance of normalcy. Hark, here are but three such examples: 

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Tagged US gasoline exports, us diesel exports, US Gulf Coast crude imports Leave a comment
30 August

ClipperClip: Hittin' the Gas



Matt Smith

I enjoyed a late afternoon appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell (no early start or late finish for me today, my friends), discussing refineries on the Gulf Coast in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, and what it means for both RBOB and retail gasoline prices. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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Tagged retail gasoline prices, hurricane harvey, refineries 1 Comment
29 August

ClipperClips: Talking Harvey



Matt Smith

Yesterday was a busy day all round, discussing the developments in relation to Hurricane Harvey. I kicked off the day on the Texas Standard, discussing how the Gulf Coast storm was going to have a considerable impact on global flows of oil and products - the interview can be found here

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Tagged gasoline prices, hurricane harvey Leave a comment
23 August

OPEC giving up US market share



Matt Smith

Oil prices are rallying post-EIA report as today's crude draw was joined by a drop in gasoline inventories. Although waterborne imports were strong last week, OPEC flows to the U.S. continue to ebb. Hark, here are some things to consider in oil markets today:

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18 August

Trundling crude



Matt Smith

WTI is trundling lower into the weekend, still looking listless after hitting its head on resistance around the $50 mark. As the weekend beckons, hark, here are some things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, us diesel exports, us gasoline export, mexico diesel imports, brazil diesel imports Leave a comment
17 August

ClipperClip: The Kicker



Matt Smith
Last night's appearance on CNBC Asia addressed strong crude inventory draws in the US  - due to higher exports, lower imports and record refinery runs - and a potential looming product glut. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip: Continue Reading
Tagged US oil imports, US oil exports, record refinery runs Leave a comment
15 August

US inventories back in focus



Matt Smith

After trying to grab ahold of the fifty dollar handle, WTI has lost its grip and is sliding lower in forty dollardom once more. Even though U.S. inventories look set to descend through August, global oversupply concerns are overshadowing this supportive influence. Hark, here are some things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged Saudi Arabia oil exports, Venezuela oil exports, India oil demand Leave a comment
08 August

Saudi Swinging



Matt Smith

Rumors and murmurs suggest that Saudi is not only cutting exports again in September, but is choosing to swing these flows away from the east, and towards the west once more. Nonetheless, crude prices are still ticking lower on this eighth day of the eighth month. Hark, here are some OPEC observations to consider:

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Tagged OPEC exports, Venezuela oil exports, Angola oil exports, Libya oil exports, OPEC exports to the US 4 Comments
02 August

ClipperClip: Mopping Up



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on the set of CNBC's Squawk Box was a whirlwind tour of what is on our mind here at the good ship Clipper: falling Saudi exports to the US, rising Libyan exports, strong product demand, and crude being mopped up in Asia. Hark, click on the below mug shot to launch to the clip:

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Tagged OPEC, Saudi crude exports, Libya crude exports Leave a comment
01 August

Don't call it a comeback?



Matt Smith

Crude has run into a wall of resistance today and fallen over, after sprinting full pelt at fifty-dollardom for the last week and a half. While we see some supportive elements appearing in our ClipperData, some startling signs of salubrious supply have sent the bulls running for the hills today.  

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Tagged Libya oil exports, us oil production, naphtha Leave a comment
28 July

Saudi walkin' the walk



Matt Smith

Back in late May, Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih said that 'exports to the U.S. will drop measurably', as the OPEC Kingpin adjusted its focus to reducing exports to the world's most transparent energy hub.

Exports from Saudi to the U.S. take approximately seven weeks to arrive - hence, as we swiftly approach the end of July, we can see from Saudi deliveries this month that they are not...

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Tagged Saudi crude exports, Venezuela sanctions 4 Comments
26 July

Come on in, the water is fine!



Matt Smith

It's good to see Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih jumping on the tanker-tracking train (well, you know what I mean), highlighting that participants in the OPEC / NOPEC production cut deal need to reconcile production with exports, and that oil exports are now the key metric to monitor. (Come on in, the water is fine!).

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Tagged Saudi crude exports, pdvsa, citgo, chevron, china crude imports 3 Comments
14 July

A crude cornucopia



Matt Smith

We've had more energy-related newsflow than we can shake a stick at this week, with the triumvirate of monthly reports from the EIA, IEA and OPEC. The crude complex looks to finish the week with a solid gain, as positivity relating to demand distracts us from ongoing strong supply - at least for now. As we head into the weekend, hark, here is a cornucopia of crude and energy-related tidbits to...

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Tagged LNG exports, Saudi Arabia oil exports Leave a comment
13 July

ClipperClip: Mo exports, mo problems



Matt Smith

In last night's appearance on CNBC Asia, we discussed how exports need to drop for this market to really start to tighten (you may have heard us mention this before...). Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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Tagged Nigeria oil exports, Libya oil exports, OPEC oil production Leave a comment
07 July

Reality bites



Matt Smith

Six months after the implementation of the OPEC production cut deal to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day, and we should be well on our way towards rebalancing - yet prices have just reached a new low for the year.

OPEC actually exported more crude in June than it did in October (the production cut deal reference level), while total global crude exports are over 10 percent higher...

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28 June

Still playing whack-a-mole



Matt Smith

Earlier in the week we discussed how lower Saudi export loadings in April are translating into lower arrivals on U.S. shores this month. This has prompted some to ask whether Iraq has stepped up to fill this supply gap.

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Tagged US crude imports, US oil imports, global floating storage Leave a comment
26 June

Saudi export cuts kicking in



Matt Smith

We discussed back in early May how Saudi Arabian crude export loadings in April had dropped materially. Given the journey time to US shores (hark, seven-ish weeks), the expectation was that we would start to see lower volumes reflected in the June data. And sure enough, as we prepare to exit June stage right, arrivals are on the decline.

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Tagged Saudi Arabia oil exports, US imports of Saudi crude 2 Comments
12 June

Leaving the light on



Matt Smith

As domestic production continues to roar back, the U.S. is importing light crude at an increasingly stronger pace. After light crude imports dipped to around 1 million barrels per day in early 2015 - as U.S. production peaked at 9.6mn bpd - imports have rebounded steadily since, while production waned through the latter half of 2015 and the first half of 2016.

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Tagged Nigeria oil exports, US crude imports, North African oil exports, west african oil exports 2 Comments
08 June

ClipperClip: Narrowing spreads



Matt Smith

In this morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box, we discussed the potential for the Brent-WTI spread to move closer to parity given increasing production and exports from Nigeria and Libya, and how this could close the door on US exports. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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Tagged Nigeria oil exports, OPEC, Libya oil exports, US oil exports 5 Comments
06 June

Not shaken, nor stirred



Matt Smith

As pockets of geopolitical tension leave the crude market neither shaken nor stirred, hark, today we dig into some of these hotspots to see what their energy flows look like, and how they could be impacted: 

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Tagged Venezuela oil exports, Qatar LNG exports, Qatar condensate exports Leave a comment
06 June

ClipperClip: Limited Impacts



Matt Smith

I dashed to the Rockefeller Center yesterday evening to do a segment on CNBC Asia, not realizing CNBC's studio was located next to the dressing rooms for 'The Tonight Show'. Hence, not only did I get a wee bit lost, but I also managed to do some celeb-spotting in the process. As for the segment, we mostly discussed Qatar and its energy flows; hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the...

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Tagged OPEC exports, Qatar, global crude flows 4 Comments
02 June

Oil roiled



Matt Smith

As oil ventures into forty dollardom once more, today's blog takes a peek at a number of supply side influences, from Basrah buoyed to Brazil nuttiness, all via a 'call on shale'. Hark, here are a number of things to consider in oil markets today:   

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Tagged Nigeria oil exports, Brazil crude oil exports, Iraq oil exports, US oil exports Leave a comment
26 May

The Hangover



Matt Smith

No sooner had the dust settled after the conclusion of the latest OPEC meeting (with oil traders selling the market like hot cakes), we got Saudi oil minister Khalid Al-Falih saying that exports to the US were dropping measurably

While this has caused a good degree of excitement in the market, we here at the good ship ClipperData had already highlighted at the beginning of this month that...

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Tagged OPEC exports, Saudi oil exports Leave a comment
25 May

Extension reflects OPEC's shortcomings



Matt Smith

As OPEC's latest meeting concludes in Vienna, just a glimpse at the charts below helps explain why the cartel's production cut deal has been extended for another nine months: it hasn't worked so far.

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, US oil imports 2 Comments
23 May

Limbering up for OPEC



Matt Smith

Last week we discussed how some OPEC producers are exhibiting compliance via lower exports, while others are not. Our export data affirms what others are saying about Iraq: that OPEC's second-largest producer has not been playing ball

Exports out of the south of the country continue to hold up, above 3 million barrels per day, while exports from the north are also consistently holding above...

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19 May

The complexity of OPEC compliance



Matt Smith

One of the biggest conundrums of the OPEC / NOPEC production cut from a ClipperData perspective is that no sooner does a producer appear to be showing compliance via lower exports, lo and behold, volumes rebound.

Some producers have been fairly consistent in their discipline, barring a few blips (bravo, Saudi), while others stand on the sidelines, looking in the other direction (here's...

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, UAE oil exports, OPEC compliance Leave a comment
16 May

Subdued crude amid ample supply



Matt Smith

Talk of rebalancing from the IEA and OPEC / NOPEC assurances of an extended production cut have not been enough to encourage the market higher. Even though global crude flows are showing new trends, the key takeaway is that the market appears well-supplied - at least for now. With that in mind, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today: 

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Tagged US oil imports, Russia oil exports, Bakken crude to Asia Leave a comment
11 May

OPEC's conundrum continues



Matt Smith

Oil is rallying for a second consecutive day, with continued positive momentum from yesterday's weekly inventory report, in combination with rising hopes of deeper and/or longer production cut commitments by OPEC. (OPEC cuts are starting to feel like QE at the turn of the decade: omnipresent). Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.    

 

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Tagged OPEC oil demand growth, OPEC supply growth Leave a comment
10 May

OPEC exports playing whack-a-mole



Matt Smith

After yesterday's monthly EIA report, and tomorrow's monthly OPEC report, the weekly EIA inventory report acts as the filling in this energy data sandwich. While have to wait until next Tuesday (16th) to get the IEA's monthly offering, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged Saudi oil exports, India oil imports, oil demand growth, Forcados Leave a comment
05 May

Saudi exports show April pullback



Matt Smith

Crude is rebounding into the weekend after yesterday's solid dose of the WBWs (whoop-bang-wallops, lest we forget). Although prices are now mired below their 200-day moving averages, after dropping ~15 percent from mid-last month, some bargain-hunting has entered into the fray at the end of the week. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged OPEC, Saudi crude exports, Singapore floating storage, chinese independent refiners Leave a comment
05 May

ClipperClip: OPEC disparities



Matt Smith

Last night's appearance on CNBC Asia addressed yesterday's rout in the oil market, as well as the disparity between apparent OPEC production levels and its exports. It's always fun to chat with my friend, the mighty Dan Murphy.  Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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Tagged OPEC, crude oil exports 1 Comment
02 May

Mexican crude exports head lower



Matt Smith

Oil prices are unable to get up off the canvas, as signs of global market rebalancing continue to be errant. With the first weekly EIA report of the month on deck tomorrow, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today: 

 

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Tagged US oil imports, Saudi product exports, mexican oil exports, Motiva Enterprises Port Arthur refinery Leave a comment
01 May

US imports of Middle East crude holding up



Matt Smith

Crude prices are heading lower as we jump into the fifth month of the year, amid concerns from a mixed bag of global economic data. As crude continues to hunt for signs of material market tightening, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.   

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Tagged China oil production, US oil imports, US inventories Leave a comment
26 April

Strong imports can't stop crude draw



Matt Smith

In today's game of rock-paper-scissors from the weekly EIA inventory report, crude inputs were propelled higher (like a rock), blunting the impact of super-strong imports (the scissors). On paper, the crude draw is bullish, but a modest rally is being kept in check somewhat by solid builds to the products. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:  

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Tagged Saudi Arabia oil exports, Venezuela, refinery runs, Iraq oil exports, Trainer refinery Leave a comment
21 April

Global crude loadings tick higher



Matt Smith

Crude prices are heading lower again, rounding out a downbeat week, as the expectation of an OPEC production cut extension is more than outweighed by an ongoing lopsided market. As oversupply fears enter the fray once more, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:  

 

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Tagged China product exports, DUCs, Permian Basin, total global crude loadings, Caribbean exports Leave a comment
20 April

Crude waiting offshore in US Gulf rises



Matt Smith

Oil is trying to recover after yesterday's shellacking, but oversupply fears still remain. As rumors and murmurs circulate about an extension to the OPEC production cut, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

 

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Tagged Venezuela, DUCs, pdvsa, OECD inventories, Southeast Asia crude, US crude waiting offshore 2 Comments
19 April

Saudi's balancing act



Matt Smith

After a lesser draw than expected to crude inventories, oil is selling off on this third Wednesday in April. As strong imports from the Middle East this week should help to buoy inventories for next week's report, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today. 

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Tagged Saudi Arabia oil exports, Saudi Arabia oil inventories, IMF Leave a comment
18 April

Latam flows and frack sand



Matt Smith

Oil is on the defensive again, retracing from resistance in recent days amid bearish U.S.-centric data of rampant production increases. Despite the Good Friday holiday, we get the EIA inventory report at the usual time tomorrow, but for now, hark, here are six things to consider in oil markets today:  

 

 

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Tagged Permian Basin, frack sand, US imports of Latin American crude 1 Comment
11 April

Oil bobbing ahead of monthly reports



Matt Smith

Today is national submarine day, and oil prices are trying not to submerge after a recent sustained rally. Today we get the opening gambit from the triumvirate of reports from the EIA, IEA and OPEC, with the EIA's short term energy outlook on deck first. OPEC is waiting in the wings tomorrow, before the IEA's Oil Market Report follows as the caboose on Thursday. In the meantime, hark, here are...

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Tagged Algeria oil exports, Iran oil exports Leave a comment
07 April

Atlantic Basin crude heads to Asia



Matt Smith

After oil prices spiked higher overnight amid a U.S. airstrike on Syria, an underwhelming monthly employment report this morning has helped to unravel most of these gains. As the market awaits CFTC and rig count data this afternoon, hark, here are five things to consider in oil and energy markets today:

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Tagged West African Flows, Asia demand, Latin american oil exports Leave a comment
06 April

Floating storage holding up despite Iran drop



Matt Smith

Oil is ticking higher today, as the market continues to bet on the prospect of market tightening. As Nonfarm payrolls beckon tomorrow, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.  

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05 April

Oil waiting in US Gulf rebounds



Matt Smith

The crude complex is feeling charitable today, giving away most of its overnight gains, as last night's bullish API report head-faked the market. As Nonfarm Friday looms next on the radar, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

 

 

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Tagged US oil imports, us oil exports to China, mexican oil exports Leave a comment
03 April

UAE: oil exports down, gasoline imports up



Matt Smith

WTI and Brent crude start Q2 in fifty dollardom, as the market continues to grapple with market rebalancing and OPEC compliance. As the market awaits signs of a tightening market, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged us oil and product inventories, UAE gasoline imports, pdvsa 5 Comments
30 March

ClipperClip: Lumpy



Matt Smith

Naming and shaming was the theme of last night's appearance on CNBC Asia, as we discussed which members of OPEC seem to be in compliance...and which do not. In conclusion: OPEC compliance is lumpy. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip. (Quotes from other parts of the interview are also in this CNBC article).

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28 March

Rising Iraqi oil exports to the US



Matt Smith

Two-hundred and twenty years to the day after the washing machine was patented, oil prices are continuing to spin around support at the $48 level. As buying interest returns today, ahead of the weekly inventory data, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.  

 

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Tagged Iraq oil exports, mexico product imports, Saudi Aramco, producer hedging Leave a comment
27 March

OPEC pledge to lower crude exports



Matt Smith

Oil prices are subdued to start the week, as the weekend's compliance meeting has done little to allay oversupply fears. As WTI continues to trek on in forty-dollardom, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged Saudi Arabia oil exports, Angola oil exports, Iraq oil exports Leave a comment
22 March

OPEC arrivals lag to U.S. shores



Matt Smith

Crude is heading lower today after a solid build to crude inventories from the weekly EIA inventory report. As U.S. inventories climb to a new record high, crude is having a tough time believing that the market is re-balancing. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:   

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Tagged Saudi Arabia oil exports, OPEC exports to the US, US oil inventories Leave a comment
21 March

Saudi flows swing west once more



Matt Smith

Crude prices are coming under selling pressure once again, as oversupply concerns dwarf OPEC production cut expectations. As equity markets join oil prices in charging lower, hark, here are six things to consider in oil markets today. 

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Tagged Saudi oil exports, Japan product exports, China vehicle sales Leave a comment
17 March

Oil scared stiff



Matt Smith

It is quadruple witching day in the markets today, and accordingly, oil prices are scared stiff, hardly budging. Despite it being St. Patrick's Day, prices are struggling to stay in the green, as market participants try to weigh up whether OPEC is going to continue its production cuts (or even implement them in the first place). Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged Iraq oil exports, Saudi Arabia product exports, Saudi product exports Leave a comment
16 March

Oil wobbles amid OPEC scrutiny



Matt Smith

Oil has got the wobbles after yesterday's rally, giving up gains as the dollar bounces from its lows. As OPEC compliance comes under scrutiny once more, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today. 

 

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Tagged OPEC, OPEC exports, US oil imports, Kashagan 2 Comments
15 March

EIA oil draw due to lower imports



Matt Smith

Crude prices are rebounding today, bouncing off the trampoline of price support at $48 for WTI, $50 for Brent. A surprise draw to U.S. crude inventories (not to some) has been behind the rally (see more below), while the monthly IEA report followed in OPEC's footsteps by showing higher Saudi production, and higher OECD petroleum inventories. All that said, hark, here are five things to...

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Tagged Saudi oil exports, refinery runs, OECD oil inventories 2 Comments
15 March

ClipperClip: Snow Excuses



Matt Smith

I ventured through New York's snowpiled streets early this morning to appear on the set of CNBC's Squawk Box. It was well worth it, though, to get to chat with Becky Quick about how OPEC has snow no excuses for why production cuts are not showing up in our export data. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip. 

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Tagged iea oil market report, OPEC monthly oil market report, OPEC oil production Leave a comment
14 March

Twists and turns



Matt Smith

The double whammy of yesterday's EIA drilling productivity report - showing rampantly rising shale production next month - combined with a bearish OPEC monthly oil market report, has sent oil prices scampering lower, testing key support levels on both Brent and WTI. With more twists and turns in the coming days than the Monaco Grand Prix, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets...

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Tagged China oil demand, Basrah heavy, basrah light, Saudi Arabia oil production, us oil producing states Leave a comment
13 March

Oil steadies the ship



Matt Smith

And it's shaping up to be another fun week in the crude complex, with OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report on Tuesday, swiftly followed by the IEA's monthly oil market report the day after. As oil is looking a little steadier after reaching our downside target, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged Asia oil imports, retail gasoline prices, UAE oil exports Leave a comment
09 March

ClipperClip: Boiling Kettles



Matt Smith

Yesterday evening I appeared on CNBC Asia to discuss the swift and sharp sell-off in oil prices with the mighty Dan Murphy. We also discussed ClipperData's latest white paper about unusual flows, in which we highlight Singapore floating storage as key gauge of market oversupply. Dan subsequently wrote this piece on the topic. 

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Tagged oil inventories, Singapore floating storage 3 Comments
08 March

Record US inventories weigh on oil



Matt Smith

As U.S. crude inventories jump to a further record high, prices are chugging lower once again. A backdrop of strong economic data is also helping to sweep crude lower, via the broom of a stronger dollar. As focus shifts back onto weaker U.S. fundamentals, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.  

 

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Tagged Nigeria oil exports, EIA inventory report, US oil imports, North Sea oil exports Leave a comment
07 March

A bullish snore & bearish pause



Matt Smith

Crude continues to churn in its tight trading range, little moved by Libyan supply concerns, nor by rhetoric coming out of CERAWeek in Houston. As we await another weekly dose of U.S. inventory data, all we can hear are bullish snores amid a bearish pause (paws?). Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged Qua Iboe, Permian Basin Leave a comment
03 March

OPEC and donuts



Matt Smith

Crude prices are getting up off the canvas after being knocked down yesterday, helped up by a falling dollar ahead of lots of Fedspeak. Nonetheless, prices are holding in their tight range, as OPEC compliance seems to have more holes than a donut factory, while dollar strength should return soon as a U.S. March rate hike looks increasingly baked into the donut cake. Hark, here are five things...

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Tagged Nigeria oil exports, OPEC, OPEC oil exports, Angola oil exports 1 Comment
28 February

OPEC output marching higher



Matt Smith

Crude is easing lower on this last day of February, as other sources are endorsing what we said last week - that OPEC production and exports are on the rise. As gasoline weakness leads the complex lower, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.    

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Tagged Nigeria crude oil exports, Saudi Arabia refinery runs, Saudi Arabia product exports Leave a comment
24 February

OPEC / NOPEC exports indicate non-compliance



Matt Smith

Has no-one really done a 'getting riggy with it' pun yet? Ok then, here it goes. We've made it to Friday, which means we get a couple of data points to hold our attention at the tail-end of the trading week. First we get the Baker Hughes report, which will once again likely be getting riggy with it (Ta-dah!), as prices in fifty-dollardom continue to incentivize drilling activity. After that we...

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23 February

Asia is a crude magnet



Matt Smith

After a bullish-tilted weekly EIA report, crude is holding onto gains - and once again bumping its head on the top of its trading range. As OPEC cuts and rising shale continue to do battle, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged Brazil oil exports, Asia oil imports, pre-salt formations, US gasoline imports 2 Comments
22 February

Pass the Parcel



Matt Smith

Crude prices are selling off today as gasoline holds up relatively better, as refiners playing 'pass the parcel' of bearishness betwixt the two. As refiners make economic run cuts due to lower profit margins, gasoline inventories are set to drop going forward amid lower supply....while crude inventories are set to continue to swell. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil and energy...

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Tagged refinery runs, U.S. crude imports, solar, shale break-evens, forward curve Leave a comment
20 February

Something's gotta give



Matt Smith

U.S. markets are closed today in observation of Presidents Day, but crude prices are still trucking on higher in thin electronic trading. Fun and games have been deferred until later in the week, with the EIA inventory report pushed back until Thursday. As for today, hark, here are five things to consider in oil and energy markets:

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Tagged LNG exports, Saudi oil exports, financial positioning, nuclear power 2 Comments
17 February

Pops and drops keep crude in tight range



Matt Smith

Oil is ticking lower today, under the weight of record crude and gasoline inventories, but with OPEC production cuts providing a supportive backdrop (...and peeking around the curtain). As Friday afternoon approaches, and the prospect of conflicting data from a rising rig count and bullishly-positioned CFTC data, hark, here are five things to consider in oil and energy today. 

 

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Tagged Oman oil exports, Angola oil exports, UAE oil exports, Solar energy, murban exports Leave a comment
14 February

U.S. Producers feel the love on Valentine's Day



Matt Smith

In honor of Valentine's Day, oil prices are following the arc of Cupid's arrow, and heading higher.  Although another likely bearish weekly inventory report lies in store tomorrow, production cut expectations carry more influence - at least today - to encourage a rally. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today. 

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Tagged Nigeria oil exports, OPEC, Libya oil exports, India oil demand, Permian Basin 1 Comment
13 February

As good as it gets



Matt Smith

Oil is charging lower to start the new week, as the monthly OPEC oil market report has done little to assuage oversupply concerns - despite the cartel's proclamations of production cut compliance and upward revisions to oil demand growth. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:  

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, Basrah heavy, basrah light, Urals, fertilizer Leave a comment
10 February

US LPG exports reach another record



Matt Smith

 A supportive IEA monthly report has encouraged a Friday rally for black gold, Texas tea. As prices ping around in their current tight trading range, approaching resistance once again, hark, here are five things to consider in oil (...and LPG...and LNG!) markets today:  

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Tagged LNG exports, LPG exports, US LPG exports, iea oil market report 1 Comment
09 February

U.S. crude exports impact regional pricing



Matt Smith

Oil prices are moving back toward the top of their recent trading range, looking to muster a test of resistance once more. As positivity abounds amid new intraday record highs for U.S. equity markets, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged US gasoline exports, EIA STEO, US oil exports 1 Comment
08 February

Sell the rumor, buy the (bearish) fact



Matt Smith

Today's price action has been a case of sell the rumor, buy the (bearish) fact, as the affirmation of a gargantuan crude build from today's weekly EIA report has stoked some buying interest. All we can suggest is that last night's API print took the sting out of today's number, while a surprise draw to gasoline seems to be pulling crude higher by its bootstraps. Hark, here are five things to...

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Tagged Angola oil exports, Permian Basin, German electricity Leave a comment
07 February

Oil tonked again



Matt Smith

Oil is getting tonked for a second consecutive day, as prices have run into resistance at the top of their trading range, sending them staggering lower once more. With record net-long speculative positioning, a couple of days of selling could really ignite a bout of profit-taking (especially with the prospect of another bearish inventory report tomorrow). Hark, here are five things to consider...

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Tagged US east coast oil exports, propane exports, BP, US LPG exports Leave a comment
06 February

Oil takes lead from Lady Gaga



Matt Smith

Rather than rallying like Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, oil today is instead dropping faster than Lady Gaga's mic, ushered lower by a stronger dollar and ongoing expectations of an amply supplied market. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:   

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, U.S. oil imports, U.S. LNG exports, Japan LNG imports Leave a comment
03 February

Asia looking further afield



Matt Smith

Happy Nonfarm Friday! Better-than-expected job creation last month is supporting sentiment on this first Friday of February, and crude is being swept along with this, being boosted as well by the announcement of sanctions on Iran. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:  

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Tagged OPEC, Venezuela diluent Leave a comment
02 February

It's Groundhog Day (again for oil)



Matt Smith

Yes, it's Groundhog Day (again), and that dastardly Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter. Fortunately, he's no good at forecasting (unlike the woolly worm), hence little attention should be paid.

The crude complex is also seemingly stuck in Groundhog Day, weighing up OPEC production cuts versus the renaissance of U.S. shale production. After yesterday's...

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Tagged Mexico gasoline imports, Mexico oil exports, gasoline inventories, oil inventories Leave a comment
31 January

The impacts of an import tax



Matt Smith

Crude is rallying on this final day of January, as hopes and projections of OPEC production cuts return to the fore once more. Before we charge into a new month tomorrow, amid weekly inventory data to boot, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.  

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Tagged US crude imports, US light crude imports, US heavy crude imports, US domestic production Leave a comment
30 January

Caution and Optimism in equal measure



Matt Smith

Oil is getting tonked on this final Monday of the month, as broader market volatility is bringing out the bears. Signs of OPEC compliance continue to counter signs of life from US shale production, with shale winning the price war today. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:  

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Tagged US oil imports, US LNG exports, US oil imports, Northwest Europe oil exports, Mexico LNG imports 1 Comment
27 January

More choppy than...



Matt Smith

And crude continues to be more choppy than Chuck Norris fighting Hong Kong Phooey fighting Bruce Lee, selling off today after yesterday's rally (after selling off on Wednesday after rallying on Tuesday...). Hark, here are five things to consider in energy markets today:    

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Tagged Mexico oil exports, US oil imports, US LNG exports, India solar, Mexcio LNG imports Leave a comment
26 January

OPEC puts its best foot forward. (On the brakes).



Matt Smith

 As production cut hopes are stoked once again, crude is pushing higher on this fourth day of the fourth week of January. While prices ultimately just pinging around in a range-bound fashion, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged Algeria oil exports, Libya oil exports, india strategic reserves, North African oil exports Leave a comment
25 January

Oil decidedly undecided



Matt Smith

Today's EIA report has left oil prices flat-footed, as crude inventories were in line with consensus, while a(nother) gargantuan build to gasoline stocks has not been enough to drag the complex lower (...has only served to keep it in check). Hark! Here are five things to consider in oil and energy markets today:

 

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Tagged Angola oil exports, India electricity Leave a comment
24 January

US crude reliance on South America



Matt Smith

As President Trump signs executive orders which pave the way for the Dakota Access and Keystone pipelines to move forwad, prices are running higher once again. Hark, here are five things to consider in energy markets today:

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Tagged US crude imports, South America oil exports, European power markets Leave a comment
23 January

Second-guessing OPEC's next moves



Matt Smith

Crude is starting the week by charging lower, as supportive rhetoric from OPEC over the weekend has done little to allay fears of ongoing strong supply this year - especially if OPEC does indeed end production cuts mid-year, and should U.S. production continue to show signs of life. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged OPEC, Saudi Arabia, oil rig count, Arab Gulf crude exports, Equatorial Guinea 2 Comments
20 January

Challenges for Chinese oil imports



Matt Smith

Crude is ripping higher into the weekend, as the ebb and flow of OPEC production cut expectations swing towards the bulls once more (the drop in Saudi export loadings this month are looking pretty tasty, it has to be said...). Stay strong, my friends, for the weekend awaits. In the meantime, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.   

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Tagged China oil demand, China oil production, China refinery runs, China teapots, capex Leave a comment
19 January

Iraqi oil output at a record



Matt Smith

Oil is finding some support thus far today off the back of the IEA's monthly oil market report, which pointed to a tightening market amid OPEC production cuts. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.   

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Tagged Japan oil imports, IEA OMR report, Iraq oil exports, UAE oil exports Leave a comment
18 January

Twists and turns from OPEC & shale



Matt Smith

Fun and games for the next few days have been kicked off by the release of the monthly OPEC report, with a monthly IEA and weekly EIA report to follow tomorrow. Immediate oil prices are being ushered lower by a rebounding dollar, unwinding yesterday's rally, while signs of OPEC production cuts and rising US shale are adding to a mottled outlook. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil...

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Tagged Permian Basin crude oil production, Brazil oil exports, drilling productivity report, opec monthly report Leave a comment
17 January

Pockets of faltering oil production



Matt Smith

With the U.S. dollar being dealt a most solid dose of the whoop-bang-wallops (WBWs), crude prices cannot help but be propelled higher today. The great British pound on track for its best day since 2008, as the promise of a parliamentary vote on Brexit has sent it on a madcap rally. A super-strong pound (ergo, a weaker dollar) is lifting crude - although the fun and games for crude kick off in...

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Tagged China oil production, Venezuela oil exports, India oil imports, China renewable energy Leave a comment
16 January

Asia's oil reliance to continue rising



Matt Smith

With markets closed today to witness Martin Luther King Jr. Day, prices are not surprisingly rather subdued amid quiet electronic trading. Nonetheless, fun and games will ramp up from tomorrow, with OPEC's monthly oil report out on Wednesday, swiftly followed by the IEA's monthly oil market report on Thursday - along with the delayed EIA weekly report. That said, hark, here are five things to...

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Tagged Asia oil imports, fracking, global lng market 1 Comment
10 January

Oil oversupply fears return



Matt Smith

Crude prices are once again on the defensive today as oversupply fears swirl. As the market waits with bated breath for the manifestation - or lack thereof - of OPEC / NOPEC cuts, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets.  

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, Iraq oil exports Leave a comment
06 January

OPEC cuts to the core?



Matt Smith

Happy Nonfarm Friday! It is the first Friday of the year, hence we get our first monthly dose of official US employment data. Job creation last month was below expectations, but was offset by upward revisions to prior months, while wage growth also improved to the fastest pace in seven years, adding a positive hue to the report.

Dollar strength off this report is helping to keep crude in...

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Tagged OPEC, OPEC oil exports, Iran oil exports, China renewables Leave a comment
05 January

Hell for leather



Matt Smith

The phrase 'hell for leather' first appeared in the Rudyard Kipling story, 'The Valley of the Shadow', relating to riding on horseback, and defined as 'breakneck speed, or with reckless determination'. This is a more than adequate way to describe the crude exports of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait in the past month.

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Tagged Nigeria oil exports, OPEC oil exports, OPEC production cuts Leave a comment
04 January

ClipperClip: Pedal to the metal



Matt Smith

My first outing on CNBC Squawk Box this year was fun as always; it was a quick tour of key issues in the crude complex, including some immediate OPEC trends we are seeing in our ClipperData at the turn of the year. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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Tagged China oil demand, OPEC, Saudi oil exports 1 Comment
03 January

Volatility set to reign



Matt Smith

After rallying like a mad thing to start the day (month, and year...), crude prices have reversed course, weighed down by a stronger dollar. Volatility looks set to be the theme for this quarter, with prices being pushed and prodded around by OPEC / NOPEC compliance; prices are already getting shaken up like a snow globe. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil and energy markets today:

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Tagged Kuwait oil exports, Russia, Solar energy, energy company stock issuance Leave a comment
27 December

ClipperClip: Goldilocks & the 3 bears



Matt Smith

I used the analogy of Goldilocks and the three bears this morning on CNBC Squawk Box to highlight the most positive and negative influences for prices in the next year. Hark, click on the mugshot below to launch to the clip:

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22 December

Mexico and its gasoline dilemma



Matt Smith

Amid a better-than-expected U.S. GDP print and a slightly softer dollar, oil prices are on the rise today. Gasoline, however, is on the move lower - and something we hone in on for today's blog. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil (and gasoline!) markets today:

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Tagged gasoline imports, retail gasoline prices, EIA, US gasoline exports Leave a comment
21 December

Rising imports boost oil inventories



Matt Smith

Oil prices are little changed, as a build to crude inventories in today's weekly inventory report has been offset by solid draws to the products. As traders start to shift focus from OPEC to Santa, hark (the herald angels sing), here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged Saudi Arabia, refinery runs, EIA inventory report, Libya oil exports Leave a comment
20 December

Iraq talking down its exports



Matt Smith

Even though crude prices may be subdued amid thin trading over the holiday period, there is always a thing (or five) going on in the oil markets. Henceforth, hark...here are five things to consider in oil markets today:  

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Tagged Iraq oil exports, oil waiting offshore in the US Gulf, Asia refinery capacity Leave a comment
19 December

Market share battles persist



Matt Smith

As we shuffle into two weeks of lower trading volume over the holiday period, and as we await next month's production cuts to start showing up in our export data (woot woot!), oil is looking decidedly undecided today. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged China oil imports, OPEC, Saudi oil exports Leave a comment
19 December

ClipperClip: Baked in the Cake



Matt Smith

I had a good run at it on CNBC Asia last night covering U.S. shale, emerging market demand and the temporary nature of the OPEC / NOPEC production cut. Hark, click on the below image to launch to the first couple of minutes of the interview, covering how a good degree of OPEC compliance is baked in the cake:

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Tagged OPEC exports, oil Leave a comment
15 December

Soaring dollar drags oil lower



Matt Smith

Yesterday's decision by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has inadvertently put concrete boots on the crude complex, sending it lower amid a soaring U.S. dollar. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged Angola oil exports, Libya oil exports, US shale production Leave a comment
14 December

Saudi oil logic is sound



Matt Smith

Oil prices are lower today, as focus shifts from optimism of the market balancing in the future, back to current oversupply. With today's US inventory report helping crude to pare losses with a solid draw to crude stocks, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged China oil production, Kashagan, opec monthly report, Kazakhstan oil production 2 Comments
13 December

IEA report encourages oil rally



Matt Smith

Prices are drifting higher again today, encouraged on by a supportive report from the IEA. A monthly OPEC report awaits tomorrow, as does the weekly inventory report, but for now - hark, here are five things to consider in energy markets today:

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Tagged OPEC, IEA OMR report, UAE oil exports Leave a comment
13 December

ClipperClip: Shock and Awe



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on the set of CNBC's Squawk Box covered a whole host of topics, including why demand is not likely to be as strong as people think (think: lesser Chinese bargain-hunting), as well as my taste in vests. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to part of the segment:

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12 December

OPEC & NOPEC cut a deal



Matt Smith

And crude is full of the festive spirit, merrily skipping higher today in response to the result of the weekend's OPEC / NOPEC meeting. As the number of global oil producers committing to participate in a production cut continues to rise, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged Oman, Kashagan, nopec, mexico, Kazakhstan, Russia oil exports Leave a comment
09 December

Saudi making tough choices



Matt Smith

Oil prices remain bid up into the weekend, as the market adopts the first part of the motto 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' ahead of tomorrow's OPEC / NOPEC meeting. Ahead of the weekend's fun and games, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged Saudi oil exports, nopec, azeri light Leave a comment
08 December

NOPEC hopes rally crude



Matt Smith

The mood of crude has flipped again, with optimism rising ahead of the NOPEC meeting at the weekend. Even though doubts persist, for today, oil prices push higher. Hark, here are six things to consider in oil markets today.  

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Tagged Iraq oil exports, Basrah heavy, basrah light, tanker rates, Kirkuk oil Leave a comment
07 December

A NOPEC focus on Oman, Russia



Matt Smith

As the meeting of NOPEC fast approaches this weekend, the mood in the oil market has shifted from euphoria to skepticism, as questions remain around the intent of key producers. With that in mind, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged Oman oil exports, EIA, Oman oil production, company earnings Leave a comment
06 December

OPEC OUTPUT UP! UP! UP!



Matt Smith

The crude complex is finally taking a breather after the recent OPEC-sponsored rally. We're now faced with the juxtapositioning of rising OPEC output versus promised cuts; something which could well become a recurring theme over the coming months. Weekly inventories beckon tomorrow, but hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged OPEC exports, Saudi oil exports, OPEC production 1 Comment
05 December

Oil showing ninja skills



Matt Smith

It is International Ninja Day, and oil is stealthily climbing higher to another daily gain. As OPEC optimism abounds, prices push higher for a fourth consecutive day to start the new week. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged OPEC exports, India oil imports, India oil demand, Iraqi oil exports, Kirkuk oil Leave a comment
02 December

Ramp up n' cut



Matt Smith

As oil pauses for breath, so can we. After a hectic week, prices are ticking slightly higher into the weekend after a positive U.S. employment report. Although more shenanigans await next week, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged Mexico gasoline imports, Mexico oil exports, Russia oil production Leave a comment
01 December

OPEC party continues on



Matt Smith

An OPEC-inspired rally continues for a second day, as the prospect of a production cut means a likely swifter market rebalancing...if it were implemented. (And that is a big IF). Nonetheless, the constructive development is spurring on positive sentiment and buying interest. A non-OPEC meeting in Doha now looms next week, but for now, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged OPEC, Saudi oil exports, refinery runs, Permian Basin, US shale Leave a comment
01 December

ClipperClip: Good Times



Matt Smith

Yesterday was too much fun; it was like all our Christmases came at once. OPEC's decision to cut production means we'll be able to monitor the cartel via our real-time ClipperData to see whether they are adhering to their commitment or not. I appeared on NPR yesterday morning to react to the OPEC decision, you can listen to the interview here.  

I also appeared on CNBC Asia last night; hark,...

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