As the US closes its doors to Venezuelan crude, we see more cargoes heading to Asia, with India as the primary destination amid talk of PdVSA seeking to barter for its oil.Continue Reading
Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.
Risk level: OrangeContinue Reading
This morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box discussed the abundance of light crude amid a lack of heavy barrels ahead of IMO 2020. We also discussed signs of weaker oil demand from China and Germany, while Russia product exports ramp up.Continue Reading
US sanctions on PdVSA and Venezuela are already having a significant impact. Imports of clean products into Venezuela were halted for 11 days from the end of January, while Venezuelan crude exports to the US have dropped considerably.Continue Reading
Recognition of opposition leader Juan Guaido as the interim president of Venezuela by the United States, Canada and several right-leaning Latin American powers shows the tenure of Nicolas Maduro and the durability of Chavismo is under threat.Continue Reading
I was out on CNBC Asia last evening discussing the current situation in Venezuela, and its path back to energy. We discussed the crude flows leaving the country, where they are going, and how dependent Venezuela is on the flow of diluent into the country from the US.Continue Reading
Back in late May, Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih said that 'exports to the U.S. will drop measurably', as the OPEC Kingpin adjusted its focus to reducing exports to the world's most transparent energy hub.
Exports from Saudi to the U.S. take approximately seven weeks to arrive - hence, as we swiftly approach the end of July, we can see from Saudi deliveries this month that they are not...Continue Reading