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ClipperBlog

14 January

The GERM Report



Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week.

Risk level: Orange

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, opec monthly report, OPEC production cuts, geopolitics, geopolitical tension Leave a comment
14 December

Trading Places



Matt Smith

Trading Places is the most popular trading (and presumably, Christmas) movie among energy traders (as proven by Anthony Crudele via his podcast interviews). So while we get into the holiday spirit, it seemed appropriate to highlight how energy flows have their own version of the movie plot playing out. 

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Tagged OPEC, OPEC oil exports, Libya oil exports, US LPG exports, US oil exports Leave a comment
24 August

I Drink Your Milkshake!



Matt Smith

The splendidly-directed movie 'There Will Be Blood' by P.T. Anderson is about the early days of the oil boom.

There is an epic scene between actors Daniel Day Lewis and Paul Dano, in which Daniel Day Lewis says: 'I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!'. 

This is a century-old hat-tip to directional oil drilling, as Daniel Day Lewis' character has used slant drilling to drain an oil reservoir under an...

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, Iran oil exports, Iraq oil exports Leave a comment
21 June

Saudi's pre-OPEC meeting ramp up



Matt Smith

As discussed on CNBC Asia last night, Core OPEC has been ramping up exports this month ahead of tomorrow's OPEC meeting in Vienna. Historically, production typically rises ahead of an OPEC quota hike, and this time looks no different. 

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Tagged Saudi crude exports, OPEC oil exports Leave a comment
25 May

ClipperClip: Levels of Significance



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box covered levels of significance, as Brent tests $80/bbl and retail gasoline $3/gal. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip, before Joe Kernen went off on a tangent...!

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, Iran, CNBC, venezuela crude exports Leave a comment
26 October

Back to the Future



Matt Smith

Wowee, 1985 showed a rich vein of form for movies. It was the year that spawned The Goonies, The Breakfast Club,  Spies Like Us, Fletch and Back to the Future. It is Michael J Fox's breakthrough movie as Marty McFly which is particularly appropriate this month, given an event that is unfolding in the oil market which has not occurred in the last 32 years. 

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Tagged Saudi crude exports, OPEC oil exports, US oil imports, Iraq oil exports Leave a comment
23 August

OPEC giving up US market share



Matt Smith

Oil prices are rallying post-EIA report as today's crude draw was joined by a drop in gasoline inventories. Although waterborne imports were strong last week, OPEC flows to the U.S. continue to ebb. Hark, here are some things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, US oil imports Leave a comment
18 August

Trundling crude



Matt Smith

WTI is trundling lower into the weekend, still looking listless after hitting its head on resistance around the $50 mark. As the weekend beckons, hark, here are some things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, us diesel exports, us gasoline export, mexico diesel imports, brazil diesel imports Leave a comment
07 July

Reality bites



Matt Smith

Six months after the implementation of the OPEC production cut deal to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day, and we should be well on our way towards rebalancing - yet prices have just reached a new low for the year.

OPEC actually exported more crude in June than it did in October (the production cut deal reference level), while total global crude exports are over 10 percent higher...

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Tagged Saudi oil exports, OPEC oil exports, US oil imports Leave a comment
25 May

Extension reflects OPEC's shortcomings



Matt Smith

As OPEC's latest meeting concludes in Vienna, just a glimpse at the charts below helps explain why the cartel's production cut deal has been extended for another nine months: it hasn't worked so far.

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, US oil imports 2 Comments
19 May

The complexity of OPEC compliance



Matt Smith

One of the biggest conundrums of the OPEC / NOPEC production cut from a ClipperData perspective is that no sooner does a producer appear to be showing compliance via lower exports, lo and behold, volumes rebound.

Some producers have been fairly consistent in their discipline, barring a few blips (bravo, Saudi), while others stand on the sidelines, looking in the other direction (here's...

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, UAE oil exports, OPEC compliance Leave a comment
03 March

OPEC and donuts



Matt Smith

Crude prices are getting up off the canvas after being knocked down yesterday, helped up by a falling dollar ahead of lots of Fedspeak. Nonetheless, prices are holding in their tight range, as OPEC compliance seems to have more holes than a donut factory, while dollar strength should return soon as a U.S. March rate hike looks increasingly baked into the donut cake. Hark, here are five things...

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Tagged Nigeria oil exports, OPEC, OPEC oil exports, Angola oil exports 1 Comment
13 February

As good as it gets



Matt Smith

Oil is charging lower to start the new week, as the monthly OPEC oil market report has done little to assuage oversupply concerns - despite the cartel's proclamations of production cut compliance and upward revisions to oil demand growth. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:  

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, Basrah heavy, basrah light, Urals, fertilizer Leave a comment
06 February

Oil takes lead from Lady Gaga



Matt Smith

Rather than rallying like Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, oil today is instead dropping faster than Lady Gaga's mic, ushered lower by a stronger dollar and ongoing expectations of an amply supplied market. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:   

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, U.S. oil imports, U.S. LNG exports, Japan LNG imports Leave a comment
10 January

Oil oversupply fears return



Matt Smith

Crude prices are once again on the defensive today as oversupply fears swirl. As the market waits with bated breath for the manifestation - or lack thereof - of OPEC / NOPEC cuts, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets.  

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, Iraq oil exports Leave a comment
06 January

OPEC cuts to the core?



Matt Smith

Happy Nonfarm Friday! It is the first Friday of the year, hence we get our first monthly dose of official US employment data. Job creation last month was below expectations, but was offset by upward revisions to prior months, while wage growth also improved to the fastest pace in seven years, adding a positive hue to the report.

Dollar strength off this report is helping to keep crude in...

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Tagged OPEC, OPEC oil exports, Iran oil exports, China renewables Leave a comment
05 January

Hell for leather



Matt Smith

The phrase 'hell for leather' first appeared in the Rudyard Kipling story, 'The Valley of the Shadow', relating to riding on horseback, and defined as 'breakneck speed, or with reckless determination'. This is a more than adequate way to describe the crude exports of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait in the past month.

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Tagged Nigeria oil exports, OPEC oil exports, OPEC production cuts Leave a comment
29 November

OPEC's dominance in Asia



Matt Smith

The gloves are off in Vienna and OPEC members are trading verbal blows about what they will or won't do in relation to production cuts. Finally the main event arrives tomorrow (finally!), while we also get the added bonus of a weekly inventory report to pique our interest. But for now, hark, here are five things to consider in energy today:

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, Asia oil imports Leave a comment
02 November

ClipperClip: Bamboozling



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on the set of CNBC Squawk Box was a fun affair as always; we addressed the current price move lower, and the possibility of OPEC bamboozling the market at the end of the month. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip.

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Tagged OPEC oil exports Leave a comment
09 September

Sell the rally one more time



Matt Smith

Yesterday's emphatic rally in response to the biggest crude draw since Britney Spears was number one with '...Baby one more time' (err, January 1999) is being unravelled as realization dawns that the factors that caused yesterday's gargantuan draw were transitory in nature. Hark, here are today's things to consider in energy markets:   

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Tagged OPEC oil exports, hurricane season, Libya Leave a comment
17 August

Oil inventories distract from jawboning



Matt Smith

Today's weekly EIA inventory report has provided a very (very) welcome distraction from the production freeze jawboning. A solid draw to crude stocks, helped in large part by another large draw to the West Coast (h/t low imports) has been a supportive element, as has a solid draw to gasoline. Refinery runs hit their highest level for the year to boot...hence oil has pared losses. Hark, here...

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Tagged LNG exports, OPEC, OPEC oil exports Leave a comment
05 August

Strong jobs, weak oil



Matt Smith

Welcome to another Nonfarm Friday! As job creation last month was mucho better than consensus (255,000 jobs created versus 180,000 expected, with an upward revision to prior data to boot), broader markets have a skip in their step, and are heading higher. Rising expectations of an interest rate hike return once more, hence a strengthening dollar is putting concrete boots on a third consecutive...

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Saudi oil exports, Iraq crude oil loadings, OPEC oil exports, Iran oil exports Leave a comment

About the Authors

MATT SMITH


Matt Smith deciphers and distills what is most relevant across the energy complex into cohesive and pithy knowledge you can use. The belly laugh is a bonus.

Matt Smith

DAN GRAEBER


Dan Graeber is Chief Editor at ClipperData. He specializes in exploring the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil.

Dan Graeber

AMIR RICHANI


Amir Richani is a geopolitical analyst at ClipperData, with a voracious appetite for studying political, economic and social developments in Latin America.

Amir Richani

NOAM RAYDAN


Noam Raydan is an analyst at ClipperData, focusing on political and security developments that could disrupt oil flows in the MENA region. She is also a tanker sleuth, scouring the high seas for unusual activities.

Noam Raydan

KEN SMITHMIER


Ken Smithmier is our Director of Research for Agricultural Markets. Follow along as Ken gets granular about grains.

Ken Smithmier


JOSH LOWELL


Josh Lowell is an energy analyst at ClipperData. He specializes in marine fuels, and is known for talking about IMO2020 in his sleep.

Josh Lowell


RON COIFMAN


Ron Coifman Ron is a petrochemicals markets editor at ClipperData. He has over four decades of experience in the petrochemical industry, with a particularly encyclopedic knowledge of Latin America markets.

Ron Coifman


KALEEM ASGHAR


Kaleem Asghar Kaleem is ClipperData's Director of LNG analytics, and our main man when it comes to all things natural gas related..

Kaleem Asghar

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