Risk level: Yellow - ElevatedContinue Reading
Welcome to the new home of The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Dan has a long history in oil markets and an academic background in international relations theory. Apart from energy, he's contributed to the discussion on the foreign policy strategy of...Continue Reading
I was in Chicago yesterday giving a keynote speech at a conference, so I grabbed the opportunity to swing by the TD Ameritrade Network and meet Ben Lichtenstein in person.
We did a segment covering all manner of things (as per usual) - including China, the US dollar, inventories, OPEC and gasoline.Continue Reading
After OPEC crude exports hit a record in June, ongoing strength in July seems to affirm a new trend, as opposed to a flash in the pan.
June's pre-OPEC meeting export ramp-up was pretty spectacular, propelling June's exports over 1.5 million barrels per day higher than May.Continue Reading
In this morning's appearance on the set of CNBC's Squawk Box, I used the analogy of OPEC being a soccer team - some member's exports are on the defensive (Iran, Angola, Nigeria, et al), while others are on the attack (core OPEC).Continue Reading
This morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box once again addressed the notion of 'don't fight the Falih', and the likelihood of Saudi and Russia dialing back on production cuts at Friday's semi-annual meeting.Continue Reading
The mighty Abudi Zein and myself are back on the road next week for our semi-annual tour, providing a six-month proprietary outlook on oil and product markets. To give you a flavor of some of the topics we will be covering, hark, check out a couple of the charts below.Continue Reading
As oil prices hover close to multi-year highs, Saudi's Oil Minister has hit the wires saying that OPEC 'shouldn't be complacent and listen to some of the noise such as mission accomplished' . Just as we learned earlier in this economic cycle via 'don't fight the Fed', we too should take heed: 'Don't fight the Falih'.Continue Reading
I was on the set of CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, doing a trading block segment with currency guru Nick Bennenbroek. We avoided the 800-pound gorilla in the room - the impact of tariffs on the energy industry - with anchor Joe Kernen instead focusing on global demand and supply. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip.Continue Reading
I've started doing segments on TD Ameritrade's network; they are really good fun. The interviews are typically ten minutes long, so we get to cover a variety of different topics. In this latest one, we dig into the US, OPEC, and all manner of things relating to oil markets, after an initial knee-jerk reaction to the latest economic data releases. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to...Continue Reading