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ClipperBlog

16 January

Global slowdown reaches agricultural markets



Ken Smithmier

Only two weeks into 2019, and ClipperData is already beginning to see wide disparities in Chinese soybean offtake versus historical patterns. Week 1 offtake for China totaled 656,000 tonnes in 2019, compared to 1.12 million tonnes in 2018 and 1.45 million tonnes in 2017.

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Tagged ClipperBlog, China economy, Grain, Soybeans, Global Grain 1 Comment
09 August

Oil eyes inventory data, OPEC shenanigans



Matt Smith

As the latest inventory report comes back into focus, and as OPEC murmurs and rumors persist, oil prices are rallying once more - further aided by a pinch of dollar weakness. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged ClipperBlog, India crude oil imports, Mexico gasoline imports Leave a comment
09 August

ClipperClip: Dismissing OPEC freeze rumors



Matt Smith

I had a fun chat with Bernie Lo on CNBC Asia last night about a whole host of things. Part of the interview is featured below, where we discussed the likelihood - or the lack thereof - of an OPEC production freeze. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, OPEC, Saudi oil exports, refinery maintenance season, Iraq oil exports Leave a comment
08 August

Oil up on OPEC rumors and short-covering



Matt Smith

As renewed rumors and murmurs rise up of another OPEC production freeze meeting, it is having the desired effect that certain OPEC members would want: oil is rallying like a mad thing. After short positions on WTI reached a record in the latest CFTC data, the production freeze rumor-mill has spurred on a solid bout of short-covering it would seem. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil...

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Tagged ClipperBlog, China crude oil imports, China oil production Leave a comment
05 August

Strong jobs, weak oil



Matt Smith

Welcome to another Nonfarm Friday! As job creation last month was mucho better than consensus (255,000 jobs created versus 180,000 expected, with an upward revision to prior data to boot), broader markets have a skip in their step, and are heading higher. Rising expectations of an interest rate hike return once more, hence a strengthening dollar is putting concrete boots on a third consecutive...

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Saudi oil exports, Iraq crude oil loadings, OPEC oil exports, Iran oil exports Leave a comment
04 August

$40 is a trampoline for oil prices once more



Matt Smith

As crude hopscotches back above the $40 level, it is once again being used as a trampoline, propelling prices higher. Despite the Bank of Blighty (England) cutting interest rates for the first time in seven years, the crude complex is shrugging off dollar strength and rallying strongly for a second day. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Norwegian oil revenues, Venezuelan exports 1 Comment
03 August

Crude holding around $40



Matt Smith

Crude is rebounding today ahead of the inventory report, pushing aside oversupply fears for now. Hark, here are five things to consider in energy markets today:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Qua Iboe, natural gas widowmaker, Nigeria exports, Forcados Leave a comment
02 August

Oil using $40 as a trampoline



Matt Smith

After dipping briefly into thirty-dollardom yesterday, WTI is now using the $40 level as a trampoline. It is managing to muster a bounce today amid a dollar sell-off and a shift in focus towards tomorrow's inventory report and a potential set of draws. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.  

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Kuwait oil exports, Russia Leave a comment
01 August

Oil clinging on in forty dollardom



Matt Smith

A new week, a new month, a new sell-off. Crude prices are charging lower to start the week as a plethora of bearish indicators emerge to encourage crude lower. Hark, here are five things to consider in the oil market today.

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Tagged ClipperBlog, China oil imports, Venezuela oil production Leave a comment
01 August

File Under: Floating storage concerns



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box gave me the opportunity to share some of our proprietary insights into global floating storage, and what we're seeing in terms of cargo flows. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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29 July

Oil is trying to rebound



Matt Smith

A weaker U.S. dollar is once again wafting smelling salts under the nose of the crude market, and this time it appears to be working. A large miss for preliminary Q2 U.S. GDP has further stoked economic concerns, but the love/hate relationship betwixt crude and the U.S. dollar means crude is trying to close with its first gain in seven attempts. Hark, here are four things to consider in energy...

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28 July

Oil can't get off the canvas



Matt Smith

Despite a weakening U.S. dollar wafting smelling salts under the nose of the crude market, prices are still unable to pick themselves up off the canvas, heading lower for a sixth consecutive day. Hark, here are five things to consider in the crude market today.

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27 July

Oil and gasoline inventory builds weigh on crude complex



Matt Smith

As the latest weekly inventory report from the EIA shows builds to both crude and gasoline, prices have reversed course and are charging lower. Hark, here are six things to consider in energy markets today.

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Brazil crude oil exports, gasoline Leave a comment
26 July

Oil in a tractor beam toward $40



Matt Smith

Crude prices are moving lower once again today, as another weekly inventory report comes into focus, with the prospect of rising product inventories. Hark, here are seven things to consider in crude markets today:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Nigeria crude exports, US crude imports, crude-by-rail Leave a comment
25 July

Oil charging lower to start the week



Matt Smith

After breaking technical support at $44, crude is charging lower to start a new week, once again weighed down by oversupply fears. As short positions build in the latest CFTC data, crude heads lower. Hark, here are six things to consider in crude markets today:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Nigeria crude exports, South China Sea Leave a comment
22 July

Oil heads lower, tests technical support



Matt Smith

Crude is heading lower into the weekend as supply glut fears persist, while further endorsement of a sell-off is provided by a stronger dollar. Hark, here are seven things to consider in crude markets today:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Japan LNG, Iran oil exports Leave a comment
21 July

Supply worries weigh on crude



Matt Smith

After a mixed bag of economic data, crude is charging lower, with a hangover from yesterday's inventory report and on ongoing concerns of bloated inventories. Hark, here are five things to consider in the oil market today. 

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Mexico oil exports Leave a comment
20 July

Crude rebounds after inventory report



Matt Smith

Crude prices have reversed losses post-inventory report, despite a bearish build to gasoline stocks. As crude tries to clamber away from key technical support, hark, here are five things to consider in markets today.

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19 July

Oil subdued ahead of inventories



Matt Smith

Crude is drifting lower, looking rather trepidative ahead of another weekly inventory report, while dollar strength is also helping to put the kibosh on a rally. Hark, here are five things to consider in crude markets today:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, India oil imports, LPG exports Leave a comment
18 July

Oil swoons to start week



Matt Smith

As broader markets steady themselves after Friday's failed coup attempt in Turkey, the crude complex is starting the week focusing on strong supply, potentially faltering demand to sell off strongly. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Caribbean oil storage, Venezuela diluent Leave a comment
08 July

Oil pushed and prodded into the weekend



Matt Smith

Crude is lacking conviction to finish the week - being pushed and prodded around: caught in the undertow of rising equity markets, but being held in check by a firming dollar. Hark, here are five things to consider in the oil market today.

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Nigeria oil exports Leave a comment
06 July

Oil wobbling again amid gasoline concerns



Matt Smith

Another day, another dollar (rally). Crude prices are again coming under downward pressure as economic concerns swirl and uncertainty swells. That said, dollar strength was mucho more apparent earlier in the day; as the dollar eases from its highs, oil is paring its losses - ahead of weekly inventory data tomorrow, and Nonfarm Friday the day after. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil...

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05 July

Oil with post-holiday hangover



Matt Smith

As the oil market returns to full strength after the Independence Day break, crude prices are charging lower, egged on by a strengthening dollar (well, weakness elsewhere - pound, I'm looking at you). As economic concerns rise again, crude is looking downbeat. Hark, here are five things to consider in energy markets today.

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Venezuela, Libya oil exports Leave a comment
05 July

ClipperClip: Independence Day deliberations



Matt Smith

I took a break from 4th July festivities to chat with my friends Pauline Chiou and Dan Murphy on CNBC Asia about the biggest influences in the current oil market. We cover China, Venezuela and US dynamics in swift succession; hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip.

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01 July

Oil wavers into the weekend



Matt Smith

As we charge into the second half of the year, with a long holiday weekend stretching out in front of us, oil has pared losses and appears to be shutting up shop around yesterday's close. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today. 

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30 June

Oil hanging out in forty-dollardom



Matt Smith

After a couple of days of rampant rallying, crude is heading lower once more amid a stronger dollar (read: a pound walloping). Hark, here are five things to consider in energy markets today.

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29 June

Oil marching on as sentiment improves



Matt Smith

Once again, broader markets are maintaining a risk-on stance, with a falling dollar helping to usher crude prices higher. With weekly inventories bringing focus back to U.S. fundamentals as we charge toward a holiday weekend (stay strong, my friends), here are five things to consider relating to oil and energy today. 

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Saudi Arabia oil exports, Iran oil exports, Iraq oil exports Leave a comment
28 June

Oil rebounds as dollar weakens



Matt Smith

After the bloodletting across energy commodities, equities and various currencies in recent days, today is the day we have a relief rally, with markets are seeing an inevitable rebound. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged ClipperBlog, China oil demand, China oil imports, China oil stockpiling 2 Comments
27 June

Crude unable to steady the ship



Matt Smith

As the U.S. dollar flexes its muscles once again and broader markets adopt a decidedly risk-off stance, oil prices are charging lower amid unknowns surrounding last week's Brexit decision. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil and energy today.

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Tagged ClipperBlog, China air pollution, Nigeria oil exports Leave a comment
24 June

Oil walloped



Matt Smith

And as the world comes to terms with the news that the U.K. has voted to leave the E.U., the oil market is getting a wop bop a loo bop a lop bam walloped. Hark, here are five more energy-specific things to consider today:

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23 June

Oil swept up in risk-on euphoria



Matt Smith

As the pound pushes on, equities rally, and bonds sell off, oil is being propelled higher by an expectation for a 'remain' vote coming through in today's Brexit vote. With that out of the way, let's dig into five interesting oil and gas-specific trends today:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, LNG exports, OPEC Leave a comment
22 June

Oil rallying ahead of inventories



Matt Smith

The frenetic price swings continue in the oil market today, as prices push higher ahead of the EIA's weekly inventory report, further buoyed by dollar weakness. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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21 June

Oil retraces amid broader market volatility



Matt Smith

Once again, the oil market is being whipsawed around by currency swings under the influence of Brexit sentiment. Amid dollar strength, Nigerian truce hopes, and some profit-taking after two days of leaping higher, crude retraces. Hark, here are five things to consider in crude oil markets:

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20 June

Oil rallies with risk-on rebound



Matt Smith

In honor of Brian Wilson's 74th birthday, the oil market is picking up some good vibrations to start the week. As Brexit fears abate and risk-on returns, crude is propelled higher by a weaker dollar. Hark, here are five things to consider in energy markets today.

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17 June

Oil rallies with sentiment turnaround



Matt Smith

It is national flip-flop day, and the oil market is acting accordingly. After reaching a one-month low after six consecutive days of losses, crude has changed direction today, and is relief-rallying into the weekend on easing Brexit fears (ergo, a weaker dollar) and broader improving economic sentiment. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Venezuela oil exports, gasoline days of cover, Latin America oil exports Leave a comment
16 June

Oil lower for sixth consecutive day



Matt Smith

Thirty-six years after the movie 'The Blues Brothers' opened in Chicago, and the black gold brothers of Brent and WTI are looking melancholic once more. As Brexit fears cause both uncertainty and a flight to the safety of the U.S. dollar, crude shuffles lower for a sixth consecutive day. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Asia oil imports, gasoline, Iran oil exports 1 Comment
15 June

Oil selling off on ongoing economic uncertainty



Matt Smith

Forty-seven years after the birth of Ice Cube, and the bullish sentiment in the oil market is thawing once more. As economic conditions continue to look tepid, and supply outage fears melt, crude is moving lower for a fifth consecutive day. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Nigeria, OPEC, Venezuela oil exports Leave a comment
14 June

Oil falls as IEA report cannot offset strong dollar



Matt Smith

One hundred and eighty-two years to the day after Isaac Fischer Jr. patented sandpaper, and the oil market is looking a little rough once more. Getting into the nitty gritty, crude is being ushered lower thus far today by a stronger dollar (h/t impending Fed meeting, Brexit fears), while a seemingly supportive IEA report has been unable to buoy prices. Hark, here are five things to consider in...

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13 June

Economic concerns weigh on oil



Matt Smith

Seventy-two years after Marvin Camras patented the wire recorder, and movement in the oil market today is being dictated by hopes of stronger supply (production returning from outages) and firm demand (echoed by the OPEC report) - all amid a backdrop of economic concerns. Hark, here are six things to consider today in energy markets. 

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Tagged ClipperBlog, China oil production, North Dakota flaring, OPEC report, Chinese oil imports Leave a comment
12 June

ClipperClip: Surveying the Week Ahead



Matt Smith

This evening's appearance on CNBC Asia with the mighty Dan Murphy was a quick tour of what could influence prices this week, along with a summary of the current US production landscape. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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10 June

ClipperClip: Broken China?



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on the set of CNBC's Squawk Box was a lot of fun (I assume the more Joe Kernen likes you, the more grief he gives you). Before we went off on a tangent about US energy policy, here is part of the interview discussing nutty Chinese import levels. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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07 June

Oil's tail up, dollar heads down



Matt Smith

Five hundred and twenty-two years after the Treaty of Tordesillas was signed, dividing Spain and Portugal, and crude is also in new territory today. As the gruesome twosome of supply concerns and a weaker dollar persist, both Brent and WTI are marching on in fifty-dollardom. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Qingdao floating storage, Saudi foreign reserves Leave a comment
06 June

Outages buoy oil to start the week



Matt Smith

One hundred and thirty-four years after H.W. Seely patented he first electric iron, and the crude complex is unable to get rid of the wrinkles from supply concerns. As broader markets try to recover from Friday's ugly jobs report, the oil market is introspective, focusing on its own fundamentals once more. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today: 

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Saudi oil exports, crude-by-rail, Iran oil exports Leave a comment
03 June

Oil unable to rally despite sliding dollar



Matt Smith

Seventy-four years after the birth of Curtis Mayfield, and oil prices are struggling to move on up, despite a wilting dollar due to a shocker of a U.S. jobs report. The combo of yesterday's bearish-tilted OPEC meeting and today's weak nonfarm payrolls is ushering black gold, Texas tea away from fifty-dollardom once more. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today: 

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Saudi crude exports, electric cars, Iran exports Leave a comment
02 June

Oil rallies on EIA draw, ignores OPEC inaction



Matt Smith

Sixty-three years to the day after the coronation of Elizabeth as Queen of England at Westminster Abbey, OPEC once again tries to prove itself as kingpin of the oil market. With an acronymtastic day today, courtesy of the ECB, ADP - and OPEC too - here are five things to consider in oil markets:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, OPEC, Saudi, Gabon oil exports Leave a comment
01 June

Oil is trounced, while OPEC loadings rip higher



Matt Smith

Sixty-two years after Linus' security blanket made its debut in the Peanuts comic strip, and the oil market is looking to tomorrow's OPEC meeting to provide some comfort and price support (it is absent thus far). A new month means a renewed onslaught of economic data ahead of  the double whammy of OPEC and Nonfarm Friday.  Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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31 May

Oil higher ahead of OPEC meeting, new onslaught of data



Matt Smith

One hundred and fifty-seven years after Big Ben was started, and the oil market is counting down the clock to an onslaught of economic data from the ringing in of a new month, as well as the OPEC meeting on Thursday. With a feast of fun crammed into a shortened week, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Qingdao oil imports, gasoline demand Leave a comment
27 May

Oil sees profit-taking into long weekend



Matt Smith

Forty-one years to the day after the birth of chef Jamie Oliver, and the recent rally in oil is looking a wee bit overcooked, after having a nibble at the $50 mark. Dollar strength returns to pressure prices lower, while a bout of profit-taking after hitting the psychological level of $50 is spurring on selling into the holiday weekend. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets...

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26 May

Crude has a shot at fifty dollardom



Matt Smith

One-hundred and nine years after the birth of John Wayne, and oil is shootin' from the hip today, with both Brent and WTI taking a shot at fifty dollardom. As the dollar softens, and as another act of sabotage in Nigeria looks to further stymie production, crude is close to price territory not traversed since last year. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today. 

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Nigeria oil exports, WAF flow, West African Flows Leave a comment
25 May

Crude swept up in risk-on rally



Matt Smith

One hundred and seventy-two years after Stuart Perry patented the gasoline engine, and oil is chugging higher once more. As a decent crude draw is expected from the weekly EIA inventory report, and as equity markets wistfully rally, crude is hot to trot higher. (although gasoline braces itself for a firm build). Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

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24 May

Oil reverses losses ahead of inventories



Matt Smith

One hundred and thirty-three years after the Brooklyn Bridge was opened to traffic, and crude is trying to navigate troubled water once again. Choppiness today comes courtesy of a stronger US dollar and ongoing oversupply fears, while the prospect of a crude inventory draw from tomorrow's EIA report looms. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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23 May

Oil heads lower as supply concerns abate



Matt Smith

Two hundred and thirty years after Benjamin Franklin wrote in a letter that he had invented bifocals, and the oil market is adjusting its focus once again. As the pendulum of market sentiment swings back towards the bears amid weak economic data and the hopeful return of Canadian production, oil prices are starting the week looking lower. Hark, here are six things to consider relating to the...

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20 May

Oil acting decisively indecisive into the weekend



Matt Smith

One hundred and forty-three years after Levi Strauss began marketing blue jeans with copper rivets, and the oil market is trying to make strides higher once again. But keeps changing its mind. Here are five things to consider on this final trading day of the week:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Nigeria oil exports, Qua Iboe, Escravos, Forcados Leave a comment
19 May

Downward pressure on oil via Fed hike fears



Matt Smith

Forty two years to the day after Erno Rubik invented the Rubik's cube, and the oil market is looking puzzled. As the fear of a potentially hugely huge 0.25% U.S. interest rate hike in June reverberates around the world, a firming US dollar has greased the wheels for an oil sell-off today. Hark, here are five things to consider in the oil market:

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18 May

Crude oil continues to find price support



Matt Smith

Thirty-eight years after 'The Buddy Holly Story' had its world premiere, and everyday, its a getting closer ($50 crude that is). After a deluge of economic data overnight, and ahead of the weekly EIA inventory report, crude is edging higher thus far. Hark, here are five things to consider in the oil market today.

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17 May

Oil looks ahead to potential inventory draw



Matt Smith

One hundred and forty-one years to the day after the first Kentucky Derby was run, and crude oil's gallop higher has now slowed to a trot. As focus shifts towards the weekly inventory reports (a crude build? we say neigh...), here are six things to consider in the oil market today:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Nigerian crude oil exports, Permian Basin crude oil production, US crude oil production, Angola oil exports, Eagle ford oil production Leave a comment
16 May

Crude oil rallies on signs of rebalancing



Matt Smith

Thirty-one years after Michael Jordan was named Rookie of the Year in the NBA, and supply outages are ensuring that a rally is a slam dunk for oil today. Here are seven things to consider in the crude complex:

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Chinese crude oil imports, market rebalancing, Nigeria crude oil exports Leave a comment
13 May

Oil running scared on this Friday the 13th



Matt Smith

And it's an exciting end to an eventful week in the oil market on this Friday the 13th. In fitting fashion, crude was screaming lower earlier, chased off by a stronger dollar (apparently in a hockey mask), before positive economic data has helped improve the mood a bit in the US. OPEC's monthly report has had something for both the bulls and the bears; hark, here are six things to consider in...

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Tagged ClipperBlog, Canadian oil imports, OPEC, West African cargoes, Iran, Iraq Leave a comment
12 May

Dollar weighs on crude, offsets bullish IEA report



Matt Smith

One hundred and sixty-nine years after William Clayton invented the odometer, and the oil market is trying to continue its journey higher. Despite a bullish-tilted monthly report from the IEA, the speed bumps of a stronger dollar are slowing crude's progress today. Hark, here are six things to consider in today's oil market:

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11 May

Round, round, get around, crude gets around...



Matt Smith

Fifty-two years to the day after The Beach Boys released 'I Get Around', and the crude complex is sympatico with this notion. As the market tries to weigh up supply losses, the return of said supply losses, and weekly inventory changes, prices have been bopping betwixt gains and losses thus far today. Hark, here are five things to consider in the oil market today:

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10 May

Oil rallies as focus swings back to supply outages



Matt Smith

One hundred and seventeen years after the birth of Fred Astaire, and the oil market is getting its groove on - facing the music and dancing higher. Hark, here are five things to consider in the oil market today: 

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09 May

Oil reverses as stronger dollar offsets Canadian concerns



Matt Smith

Two hundred and thirty-one years after Joseph Bramah patented the beer-pump handle, and the oil market is looking a little frothy once more. Canadian wildfires continue to stoke supply concerns, while the appointment of a new Saudi oil minister has produced a whole host of conclusions. Hark, here are five things to consider relating to oil markets today:

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09 May

ClipperClip: Fighting Fires



Matt Smith

I appeared on CNBC Asia's Squawk Box last night to talk about the developments over the weekend relating to Canadian wildfires, as well as the replacement of Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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06 May

Oil flip-flops into the weekend



Matt Smith

Sixty-two years after Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile, and we are sprinting towards the end of another crazy week. The craziness continues today, for not only is it Kentucky Derby Eve, but it is also Nonfarm Friday, which means we get official monthly US unemployment data. Hark, here are five things to consider on this sixth day of May. 

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05 May

Crude oil prices rise on supply outages



Matt Smith

Happy Cinco De Mayo! It is also national cartoonist day, and accordingly we are being left to draw our own conclusions from today's variety of influences on the crude oil market. Here are five of them to consider:

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04 May

The force is strong with crude bulls today



Matt Smith

May the fourth be with you, my friends - for it is national Star Wars day. Accordingly, the forces of good and evil (the bulls and the bears - you pick which is the baddie) are involved in an epic battle. Here are five things to consider regarding crude today:

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03 May

Weak data, strong dollar pressure crude lower



Matt Smith

Despite it being James Brown's birthday (he would have been 83 today), and despite yesterday's sell-off, oil prices are struggling to get up, get on up. Here are five things to consider on this third day of the fifth month:  

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02 May

Crude oil retraces to start the new month



Matt Smith

Forty-two years to the day after the filming of "Jaws" began (in Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts), and the bears are smelling blood in the water for a pullback. With certain countries closed for a bank holiday today (May day! May day!), here are five things to consider in the oil market:

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29 April

Weaker dollar propping up crude again



Matt Smith

Two hundred and three years after J.F. Hummel patented rubber, and the oil market is bouncing once again. Yesterday's dollar weakness was encouraged by a super-strong yen; today's has been egged on by China's central bank, which has lifted the yuan peg by the most since 2005. With oil up nearly 80% (!!) from its February lows, here are six things to consider in the oil market on this final...

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28 April

Saudi crude oil imports to the US hit 11-month high



Matt Smith

One hundred and six years after Claude Grahame-White performed the first night flight, and today's oil market is flying blind once more, supported by macro factors while immediate fundamentals remain a blind spot. Hark, here are seven things to consider in the oil market today:

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27 April

Saudi Arabia sending more crude oil into Asia



Matt Smith

One hundred and sixteen years after the birth of Woody Woodpecker creator and animator Walter Lantz, and WTI crude oil is knocking on the door of $45 - and knocking on wood that US production is wilting. Here are six things to consider about the oil market on this final Wednesday in April:

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26 April

Crude oil rebounds, Middle East in focus



Matt Smith

One-hundred and sixteen years after the birth of seismologist Charles Richter, and the crude market is trying to break some ground today. Rumbles in the market are being caused by quarterly earnings season, with prices rebounding thus far. Hark, here are seven things to consider in the market today:

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25 April

Oil bewitched, bothered and bewildered to start the week



Matt Smith

The mighty, mighty Ella Fitzgerald was born ninety-nine years ago today, and accordingly the crude oil market is looking 'bewitched, bothered and bewildered', being pulled in 17 different directions - flipping from losses to gains and back again. Hark, here are six things to consider in oil markets today:

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25 April

ClipperClip: Midnight Oil



Matt Smith

I was on CNBC Asia in the wee small hours of this morning, discussing how we're seeing tentative signs of market rebalancing appearing our ClipperData. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip.

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22 April

Crude oil heads for a third consecutive weekly rise



Matt Smith

Fifty years to the day after 'Wild Thing' was released in the US by The Troggs, and oil markets are having an excitable end to a crazy week. Prices are aiming to finish higher for a third consecutive week, and at the highest level for the year. Hark, here are six things to consider in the oil markets today:

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21 April

Oil Capex Cuts Under The Spotlight



Matt Smith

Forty-seven years (!) after Simon and Garfunkel released 'The Boxer', and the bulls and the bears are slogging it out again. After trading blows in recent days, the bulls appear to have the upper hand, as technicals trump immediately weak fundamentals. Nonetheless, we are seeing a pullback today. Hark, here are six things to consider in oil markets today:

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20 April

Oil lower as Kuwait strike ends, risk-off mood returns



Matt Smith

One hundred and thirty-seven years after the first mobile home was used (in a journey from London to Cyprus....yep, it was horse-drawn), and crude is on the move once again. With news overnight that an oil strike in Kuwait has ended, combined with expectations of a solid build to crude stocks today from the weekly inventory report, crude is now trekking lower. Hark, here are five things to...

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19 April

Crude oil rallies on market balancing optimism



Matt Smith

One hundred and nineteen years to the day after the first Boston marathon, and oil markets are running higher once more. Looking beyond Doha disappointments, the market is finding solace in current supply outages, while hoping to see market balancing picking up pace going forward. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:

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18 April

Crude oil falls after Doha talks fail



Matt Smith

Seventy-seven years after Gene Autry recorded 'back in the saddle again', and the bears are in control to start the week. Although an oil strike in Kuwait is helping to temper losses, the sucker-punch provided by the collapse of production freeze talks in Doha yesterday has the bears taking the reins today. 

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18 April

ClipperClip: Wheels in Motion



Matt Smith

My Monday morning swiftly became more exciting than usual, as I was asked to make a last-minute appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box in light of the collapse of Doha talks yesterday. Hark, click on the below mugshot to see me desperately trying to avoid any Doha-related puns.

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15 April

Crude oil falls as Doha hopes wane



Matt Smith

Two hundred and thirty-two years after the first balloon ride in Ireland, and the crude market is looking deflated ahead of the Doha meeting on Sunday (...ministers have run out of hot air it seems...). As we move across the tipping point of the month toward May, here are six things to consider in oil markets today:

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14 April

Crude oil higher on pre-Doha hopes



Matt Smith

Today is national 'reach as high as you can' day, and it feels like the oil market is getting into the spirit of things, pushing on to new two-month highs. After yesterday's weekly inventory report distracted us (well, just a wee bit) from the impending Doha meeting, the IEA's oil market report today has provided some food for thought. Hark, here are six things to consider relating to oil...

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13 April

Crude oil: Waiting for Doha



Matt Smith

One hundred and ten years after the birth of Samuel Beckett, and waiting for a production cut from key oil producers feels like waiting for Godot (or...waiting for GoDoha, amirite?). After Saudi oil minister Ali al Naimi has been quoted today saying 'forget about this topic' in relation to a production cut, here are nine things to consider in energy markets today:

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12 April

Crude oil prices stuck in tractor beam



Matt Smith

One hundred and eighty-three years after Charles Gaylor patented the fireproof safe, and the oil market is on fire once more, trailblazing higher. It truly feels like we are in the Millenium Falcon - me your trusty wookie, you Han Solo / Princess Leia (delete as appropriate) - stuck in a tractor beam, with oil prices getting pulled higher and higher. Hence, as we strive on in our intergalactic...

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11 April

Crude charging higher ahead of big week



Matt Smith

Thirty-three years after REM released their debut album, and the crude complex today is being driven by murmurs again. As the producer meeting in Doha approaches (but not fast enough...), here are seven things to consider in the oil market today:

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07 April

Crude rally pauses after strong gains



Matt Smith

Two hundred and forty-six years after the birth of William Wordsworth, and the oil prices today are wandering lower (as lonely as a cloud) after yesterday's inventory-draw sponsored rally. Hark, here are five things to consider relating to energy markets today:

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06 April

Producer jawboning, inventory data lift oil



Matt Smith

Today we celebrate polytetrafluoroethylene, for it is national Teflon day. Accordingly, the crude complex is refusing to stick to the script, and is rallying again amid ongoing global oversupply. Hark, here are six things to consider in the oil market today:

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05 April

Oil edging lower once again



Matt Smith

It is Pharrell's 43rd birthday, and the crude complex appears happy to edge lower once again as production freeze hopes wane. Here are six things to consider on this fifth day of the fourth month:

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05 April

ClipperClip: Running the Gamut



Matt Smith

Last night on CNBC Asia we did a tour around the world of energy, addressing the recent oil rally, Saudi / Iran / Russia production freeze intentions, India's growing prominence in the oil market, and the growing stature of the US as a global energy supplier. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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04 April

Crude oil steady to start the new week



Matt Smith

Four hundred and thirty-five years after Francis Drake circumnavigated the world, and we continue to see the same themes circling the oil market at the start of this new week. Focus on the approaching Doha meeting is omnipresent, as is the oversupplied nature of the crude market. Here are six things to consider today:

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01 April

Crude crushed as production freeze hopes thaw



Matt Smith

One hundred and ninety years to the day after Samuel Morey patented the internal combustion engine, and the combination of Saudi rhetoric and a solid jobs report has switched off the ignition for any crude rally today, sending prices free-wheeling downhill fast. Hark, here are twenty-seven things to consider on this April Fool's Day:

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31 March

Oil prices are choppy as the quarter ends



Matt Smith

Twenty-seven years to the day after Guns N' Roses released the single 'Patience' (anyone feel old? Nope? Me neither...), and the crude market is trying to bide its time ahead of Nonfarm Friday tomorrow, but is getting buffeted around by a choppy US dollar. Here are seven things to consider today:

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30 March

Weaker dollar, inventory expectations boost oil



Matt Smith

Twenty-three years to the day after Charlie Brown hit his first home run in the Peanuts comic strip, and crude prices are swinging for the fences ahead of the weekly inventory report, rallying strongly. The market appears to be focusing on an expected draw to gasoline stocks and a lesser build to crude than consensus. All the while, prices are being boosted by a weaker dollar (h/t J Yellen)....

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29 March

Oil rally unwinds ahead of inventory data



Matt Smith

One hundred and sixty-eight years to the day after Niagara Falls stopped flowing due to an ice jam, and ongoing skepticism about a coordinated oil production freeze is meaning bullish positioning is coming unstuck today. Here are eight things to consider on the day before the day before the day before April Fool's day:

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28 March

Oil holding steady to start the week



Matt Smith

Two hundred and nineteen years after Nathaniel Briggs first patented a washing machine, and crude continues to spin around the $40 level, unable to make a clean break above it. Here are eight things to consider today:

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24 March

Supply glut worries return to weigh on crude oil



Matt Smith

Sixty-one years after Tennessee Williams' play 'Cat on a Hot Tin Roof' debuted on Broadway, and the crude complex is exhibiting traits of the aforementioned feline: looking nervous, skittish, and jumpy. After a ginormous build from yesterday's weekly inventory report, crude prices were a wop-bop-a-loo-bop a-lop-bam-walloped...and are still having trouble getting up off the canvas today. Hark,...

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23 March

Oil pressured lower by stronger dollar, inventory build



Matt Smith

Two hundred and twenty-two years after Josiah G. Pierson patented the rivet machine, and the oil market remains as riveting as ever. (I'm here all week, folks). After yesterday's API report gave a flourishing hat-tip towards a large build to crude stocks and a large draw to gasoline, oil is sliding amid a stronger dollar, while gasoline is pushing higher. Here are some things to consider...

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22 March

Geopolitical concerns send oil prices lower



Matt Smith

News of terror attacks in Belgium have shaken up financial markets and the western world generally. Oil is gauging the sentiment in broader markets and is taking its lead from that. Hence, as the US dollar firms and equities look lower, crude is selling off. Here are five things to consider relating to markets today:

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21 March

Oil looking up ahead of contract expiry



Matt Smith

Three hundred and thirty-one years after the birth of Johann Sebastian Bach, and the market is once again looking composed, despite its recent push to multi-month highs. As the WTI April contract rolls off the board today, it is trying to orchestrate one last rally; here are seven things to consider ahead of its timely demise:

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18 March

Positive macro sentiment lifts oil to 2016 high



Matt Smith

Two hundred and three years after David Melville patented the gas streetlight, and oil prices are lit up once again today. Prices are rallying for a third consecutive day, and for a fifth consecutive week - the longest streak since last May. WTI has now leapt into forty-dollardom to boot, with an impending prompt month rollover to a higher level on Tuesday (contract expiry on Monday)....

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17 March

Crude in the green for St. Patrick's Day



Matt Smith

To mark St. Patrick's Day, the crude bulls have the luck of the Irish, as prices push on the green. As hopes of a production cut meeting next month rise once more, so does the price of black gold, Texas tea. Here are six things to consider on this 17th day of March:

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16 March

Production freeze talk, inventory data lift crude oil



Matt Smith

It is Eric Estrada's 67th birthday, and accordingly, key oil producers are once again looking to police the oil market, reviving hopes of a production freeze. Combine this with the weekly inventory report and a Federal Reserve meeting, and all CHiPs are being placed on a rally today. Hark, here are five things to consider:

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15 March

Oil turns lower as short-covering runs out of steam



Matt Smith

Seventy-eight years after oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia, and the Kingdom continues to wield its influence as much as ever. As oil prices charge lower today as short-covering seems to have run its course and as hopes surrounding production 'freeze' talks evaporate, here are eight things to consider in the oil market:

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14 March

Crude oil charging lower as production freeze dismissed



Matt Smith

33 years to the day after OPEC agreed to cut its oil prices for the first time in its history, and it is still fighting for its piece of the pie (or a piece of the Pi pie...happy Pi day!). Here are eight things to consider on this one-less-hour-of-sleep-last-night Monday morning:

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11 March

IEA report kickstarts end of week oil rally



Matt Smith

One hundred and forty-nine years after the Great Mauna Loa volcano erupted in Hawaii, and oil prices are once again exploding to the upside. Here are eight things to consider as we truck on into the weekend:

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10 March

Economic concerns return to weigh on crude oil



Matt Smith

Two hundred and twenty-two years after John Stone patented the pile driver, and the oil market is trying to dodge getting hammered today. After yesterday's EIA-inspired hullabaloo, oil is looking lower. Here are seven things to consider on this second Thursday in March:

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09 March

Crude oil shrugs off inventory data, pins hopes on producer cuts



Matt Smith

On the 84th birthday of the most wonderful Keely Smith (no relation, by the way), the oil market is reversing yesterday's losses and going 'zooma zooma' to the upside, despite an impending solid build to crude stocks from the weekly EIA inventory report. Here are six things to assess relating to the oil market today:

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08 March

ClipperClip: Wheel of Fortune (commodities edition™)



Matt Smith

Tonight's appearance on CNBC Asia was a blast, as we spun the wheel of fortune (commodities edition™). Not only did we discuss the oil market, but we began the segment discussing base metals, and finished on LNG. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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08 March

Crude oil retraces ahead of likely inventory build



Matt Smith

One hundred and twenty-nine years after Everett Horton patented the telescopic fishing rod, and the recent oil rally is looking overextended. Let's go on a wander through energyland™,  to assess nine factors influencing energy today.

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07 March

Oil looking up as short-covering continues



Matt Smith

Eighty-three years after the board game Monopoly was invented, and oil prices are not represented by the iron (they are not flat), nor by the hat (there appears no lid). Instead they are represented by the car, as the market is trying to accelerate higher once more. Hark, here are eight things to consider on this first Monday in March:

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04 March

Crude oil looks to OPEC meeting, away from inventories



Matt Smith

One hundred and thirty-nine years after Emile Berliner invented the microphone, and a strong nonfarm payrolls report has amplified the weekly gain for crude into the weekend, at least for now.

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03 March

Crude oil rally running out of steam



Matt Smith

One hundred and ninety-nine years after the the first commercial steamboat route from (the mighty!) Louisville to New Orleans was opened, and the crude complex appears to be running out of steam. Here are nine things to consider today:

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02 March

Crude oil taking a walk on the wild side



Matt Smith

On the day that Lou Reed would have celebrated his 74th birthday, the oil market is taking a walk on the wild side ahead of EIA inventories. Here are ten things to consider on this first Wednesday in March:

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01 March

Oil Swings Lower After Overnight Gains



Matt Smith

It is one hundred and twelve years after the birth of Glenn Miller, and while the oil market was in the mood for an overnight rally, it is now swinging lower. Here are ten energy-related points to consider on this (pinch! punch!) first day of the month:

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29 February

Crude leaping higher on rebalancing hopes



Matt Smith

Seventy-six years after Hattie McDaniel became the first African American to win an Oscar, and the crude complex is looking inspired today. Given it is February 29th, the crude complex is accordingly leaping higher on the expectation that the chances of retesting recent lows is gone with the wind. We shall see.

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26 February

Saudi's oil actions speak louder than words



Matt Smith

Eighty-six years after New York installed its first traffic lights, and the crude complex has been given the green light to rally today, showing no sign of stopping thus far. The initial impetus for today's push higher has been renewed optimism for a coordinated effort to stymie the current oversupply in the global market.

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25 February

ClipperClip: A Saudi Flood of Oil



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box was good fun - getting to field questions from both host Michelle Caruso-Cabrera and St. Louis Federal Reserve President Jim Bullard. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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24 February

Crude oil falls again as imports boost inventories



Matt Smith

One hundred and fifty-nine years after the first shipment of perforated postage stamps was received by the US Government, and the crude complex is posting a loss once more.

After the distraction in recent days from rhetoric out of Ceraweek in Houston, focus today shifts to weekly inventories, and current oversupply in the US petroleum complex. Last night's API report presented a strong build...

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23 February

Crude oil rally unwinds as focus returns to oversupply



Matt Smith

One hundred and twenty years after the Tootsie Roll was introduced by Leo Hirshfield, and markets are coming unstuck after yesterday's sugar high.

The April contract rolls onto the board for WTI, with focus once more on the mumblings and rumblings coming out of Ceraweek in Houston, and the appearance of Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi today. We get the API report this afternoon to mix things...

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22 February

IEA kick-starts crude oil rally to start the week



Matt Smith

Three hundred and eighty-six years after popcorn was first introduced at Thanksgiving dinner, and the crude complex is popping higher to start the week. Here are seven things to consider as this week kicks off:

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19 February

Crude and Gasoline Inventories at the Center of Things



Matt Smith

Five hundred and forty-three years after the birth of Copernicus, and all action in the crude complex is revolving around yesterday's crude inventory report.

While Wednesday's API report head-faked the market into thinking we could see a draw to crude stocks, the appearance of  a 2.1 million barrel build sent crude prices charging lower. It was a 3 million barrel build in gasoline stocks,...

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18 February

OPEC still fueling crude market rally



Matt Smith

One hundred and eighteen years after the birth of Enzo Ferrari, and the current rally in the crude complex apparently has more gas left in the tank. While markets are still getting higher on the fumes of hope from OPEC rhetoric of a production freeze, a surprise draw from last night's API report has thrown more fuel on the fire for a rally.

Expectations from today's EIA report prior to the API...

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17 February

Market Currents - Banging The Drum Edition



Matt Smith

On Foo-Fighting drummer Taylor Hawkins' 44th birthday, OPEC members are again banging the drum for a production freeze. Yesterday's meeting of oil producers Saudi, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela yielded nothing except the affirmation that they are not willing to cut production. Today focus shifts to Iran, and confirmation of their intent to keep increasing production.

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16 February

ClipperClip: Moot Point



Matt Smith

I had the good fortune to appear on CNBC Asia this evening with the super-awesome Pauline Chiou, discussing the moot point of Russia and Saudi's decision to freeze production at January's production levels (....which were nigh on record highs for both of 'em...). Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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16 February

Market Currents - 'You Cannot Be Serious!' Edition



Matt Smith

Fifty-seven years after the birth of John McEnroe, and there is a racket being made in the oil market.

The racket has been caused by the announcement that four countries - Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela - have all committed to freeze crude production at current levels. While seemingly a sacrificial measure on the surface, the reality is that not only are these countries already...

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15 February

Market Currents - Mustard Edition



Matt Smith

Two hundred and fifty-eight years after mustard was first advertised in the US, and the crude complex is looking hot to trot once more.

US equity, bond and commodity markets are closed today in observation of Presidents Day, but electronic trading is open for black gold, Texas tea – and things are looking up. After last week’s torrid equity sell-off, Asian markets have finished mostly higher...

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11 February

Market Currents - Freewheeling Edition



Matt Smith

One hundred and thirty-eight years after the first US bicycle club was formed (the Boston Bicycle Club), and crude prices are freewheeling lower once more.

We have equity markets spiraling lower, as fears of global economic weakness combine with deteriorating credit conditions for energy companies. As the chart below illustrates, borrowing costs for US junk-rated energy companies have spiked...

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10 February

Market Currents - Extinguished Edition



Matt Smith

One hundred and fifty-three years after the fire extinguisher was patented by Alanson Crane, and the overnight rally in the crude market has once again been snuffed out. After double bearish trouble yesterday came in the form of the IEA and EIA monthly reports, today's OPEC report has again put a damper on things.

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09 February

Market Currents - Volleyball Edition



Matt Smith

One hundred and twenty-one years after W.G. Morgan invented volleyball, and from a rally that started with a spike overnight, we are now seeing some digging instead.

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08 February

Market Currents - Composed Edition



Matt Smith

On the 84th birthday of John Williams, the crude complex is looking anything but composed. There are lots of reasons for cheer today - Chinese Lunar New Year (hark, year of the monkey), the Rio Carnival, to name two - but priceaction in financial markets is not one of them. As dollar strength returns and economic concerns are stoked, crude prices are starting the week looking lower.

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05 February

Market Currents - Dunlop Edition



Matt Smith

One hundred and seventy-six years after the birth of John Boyd Dunlop, and the crude complex is coming under pressure again.

It is Nonfarm Friday, which means that the market is all a'flustered, digesting the soon-to-be-revised official monthly US unemployment report. The report was fairly underwhelming from a headline perspective; only 151,000 jobs were created last month, versus an...

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24 November

Market Currents - Toulouse-Lautrec Edition



Matt Smith

One hundred and fifty-one years after the birth of Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec, and today is unfortunately shaping up to be anything but a pretty picture. The oil market is being boosted by geopolitical tension, as Turkey has shot down a Russian war plane which was apparently over Turkish airspace. As conjecture swirls as to whether the plane was over the border in Syria, the result is an...

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23 November

Market Currents - Espresso Edition



Matt Smith

Today is national espresso day, and while crude oil prices received an early morning caffeine shot from rhetoric out of Saudi Arabia, the effects of this are fading. Despite OPEC's leading producer not telling us anything new - that it is prepared to work with OPEC and non-OPEC producers to stabilize the market - prices found some renewed energy from this reiterance, temporarily reversing...

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20 November

Market Currents - Beastie Boys Edition



Matt Smith

As Mike D from the Beastie Boys turns fifty today, WTI is trying to fight for its right to party on in forty-dollardom. (but failing). Brent is being more successful in trying to 'get it together', holding somewhat steady, but the ongoing swelling-inventory, tanker traffic-jammed nature of the US market is sending prices on a 'sure shot' of a retest of the August lows.

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19 November

Market Currents - Lincoln Edition



Matt Smith

Seven score and twelve years after Abraham Lincoln delivered the Gettysburg Address, and the crude complex is examining its own principles: those of supply and demand. Given the current lack of equality betwixt the two, crude prices are heading lower once again, dipping below $40 for a second consecutive day.

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18 November

Market Currents - Novel Edition



Matt Smith

It is Margaret Atwood's 76th birthday, and her 2009 novel 'The Year of the Flood' seems an appropriate way to sum up the crude market this year. We await the weekly EIA inventory report this morning, with oil inventories less than 4 million barrels shy of the record of 490.9 mn bbls seen earlier in the year (...in itself an 80-year high).

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17 November

Tuesday Charts: Mid-November Mix



Matt Smith

Happy Tuesday! The latest assemblage of chipper charts is below...enjoy!

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17 November

Market Currents - Still Stormy Edition



Matt Smith

One-hundred and forty-six years after the Suez canal opened in Egypt, and one-hundred and two years after the first steamship traveled through the Panama canal, the crude complex is praying for calm waters, but seems set for further stormy seas. (Prices are currently choppy and looking to be sunk by a stronger dollar).

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16 November

Market Currents - Somber Edition



Matt Smith

As markets re-open after Friday's coordinated terrorist attacks in Paris, there is a rather somber atmosphere to start the week. Economic data flow has done little to lighten the mood, with preliminary Q3 Japanese GDP showing a slip back into recessionary conditions. The world's third largest economy shrank by 0.2% on the previous quarter, and by 0.8% year-over-year - both numbers worse than...

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13 November

Market Currents - AAAAAaaaaahhhhhhh Edition



Matt Smith

Happy Friday 13th! This final day of the week is set to be a scream.

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12 November

Market Currents - Thin Ice Edition



Matt Smith

On Tonya Harding's 45th birthday, the crude complex is on thin ice once more. The US dollar is in ascendancy as the sturdiness of the European economy is questioned once more, while OPEC's monthly oil report has done little to allay oversupply fears.

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11 November

ClipperClip: Mopping up Oversupply



Matt Smith

I appeared on CNBC Asia on Tuesday evening to respond to all the acronymtastic news flow from IEA, EIA, OPEC, etc. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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11 November

Market Currents - Lit Up Edition



Matt Smith

Equity markets are lit up today for Diwali, while bond markets are closed to honor our Veterans (all hail). EIA weekly inventories are accordingly delayed until tomorrow due to the government holiday, although last night's API report has given us a glimpse of what to expect. It yielded a 6.3 million barrel build to crude stockpiles, and a 2.5 million barrel build to gasoline stocks....

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10 November

Market Currents - Sesame Street Edition



Matt Smith

Forty-six years after the debut of Sesame Street, and crude has tried to hold on to a positive attitude (think: Big Bird), but is ending up more like Oscar the Grouch. And it can be excused for this grumpy disposition, given another round of poor overnight economic data, combined with a bout of dollar strength.

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09 November

Market Currents - Incredible Hulk Edition



Matt Smith

On Lou Ferrigno's 64th birthday, economic concerns are growing to hulk-like proportions. The theme of economic weakness has been kicked off by poor Chinese trade data out over the weekend, compounded by a downward revision to economic growth by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation).

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06 November

A Motley Crew



Matt Smith

Happy Friday, and welcome to another selection of links to ease you into the weekend...enjoy!

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06 November

Market Currents - Slam Dunk Edition



Matt Smith

Swish! schwa-schwa swish-swish swish SWISH! (this morning's fanfare for Nonfarm Friday was played on brushes sweeping away autumn leaves). We reach the penultimate unemployment release of the year, with a lot hinging upon this report. The headline numbers - ironically 154 years after the birth of basketball inventor James Naismith - mean an interest rate hike in December is increasingly...

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05 November

Market Currents - Don't Forget Edition



Matt Smith

Remember, remember the 5th November, for Guy Fawkes attempted to blow up the UK Houses of Parliament some 410 years ago. Onward to today, and bulls are trying to ignite a rally after prices exploded to the downside yesterday.

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04 November

Market Currents - Karate Kid Edition



Matt Smith

As Ralph Macchio celebrates his 54th birthday (make you feel old? me neither, ahem...), the crude complex has tried to kick higher ahead of the weekly inventory report, but is losing the fight against a stronger dollar. While we continue to slowly exit US maintenance season, builds to crude stocks are still underway. Last night's API report yielded a +2.8 million barrel build, a little more...

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03 November

Tuesday Charts: Bits and Bobs



Matt Smith

Welcome again to Tuesday charts-  there's bits and bobs of everything in this lot...enjoy!

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03 November

Market Currents - Sandwiched Edition



Matt Smith

It is apt that it is national sandwich day, given yesterday's first-day-of-the-month onslaught of global manufacturing numbers, and ahead of tomorrow's return to form in economic data. Hence today we are sandwiched in the middle, pausing for breath. We get a few tidbits of data out in the US - factory orders, vehicle sales - but nothing too crazy. All the while, the drumbeat builds towards...

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02 November

ClipperClip: In Cahoots



Matt Smith

This morning on CNBC's Squawk Box I discussed how strong supply was in cahoots with weaker demand - likely to keep a lid on oil prices going forward. Hark, click on the blow mugshot to launch to the clip:

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02 November

Market Currents - From Here to Eternity Edition



Matt Smith

One hundred and two years after the birth of Burt Lancaster, and oil prices feel like they are going to be stuck in mid-forty dollardom 'From Here to Eternity'.

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30 October

Market Currents - The Fonz Edition



Matt Smith

On the 70th birthday of the Fonz (aka Henry Winkler), commodities are trying to stay cool amid a bearish barrage of news.

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29 October

Market Currents - Getting the Chop Edition



Matt Smith

Three hundred and ninety-seven years after Sir Walter Raleigh was beheaded, and crude prices are getting the chop once more. After yesterday's Federal Reserve FOMC rhetoric brings a December rate hike back into play, we get a 'bad is good' flip-flop, and 'good is bad'. Broader markets are trading risk-off, and the crude complex switches its focus back to abundant supplies once more.

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28 October

Market Currents - Swingin' Edition



Matt Smith

In honor of Cleo Laine's 88th birthday, the crude market is swingin' away today, trying to shimmy away from a two-month low. After a turbulent night, prices have reversed losses and are moving higher with a rallying euro, ahead of key market-moving announcements today. Meanwhile, as weather outlooks continue to lean balmy for the eastern US into November, the good ship natural gas is sinking...

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27 October

Tuesday Charts - A Mix of Pics



Matt Smith

Welcome to another bout of Tuesday charts; let's jump straight in with a look at some electrifying charts.

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27 October

Market Currents - Ten for Tuesday



Matt Smith

There are so many things to bring to your attention this morning that I had to number 'em all. So henceforth, here are 10 things not to miss on this final Tuesday morning of October:

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26 October

Market Currents - Spooked Edition



Matt Smith

The crude complex is already in the mood for Halloween later this week, spooked once again on what would have been Jackie Coogan's 101st birthday. A weaker dollar early on had been trying to lend some support, but as the market is starting to buy into a theory we have been highlighting for a while here at ClipperData -  that inventories are reaching an alarmingly high level - prices are facing...

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23 October

A Motley Crew



Matt Smith

Happy Friday and welcome to another rowdy rabble of reportage...enjoy!

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23 October

Market Currents - Talking the Talk Edition



Matt Smith

In honor of what would have been Johnny Carson's 90th birthday, the oil market is full of chatter to finish the week. We've had a bunch of economic releases to promote discussion overnight, while monetary easing is the talk of the town today.

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22 October

Market Currents - Pulling the Ripcord Edition



Matt Smith

Two hundred and eighteen years after the first recorded parachute jump, and the crude complex has pulled the ripcord on its recent free-fall. After three consecutive down days, the crude complex is mustering a bounce after drifting back to the lower levels of where it spent much of last month. A plummeting euro is helping to pare some gains (see below), but for now, a bout of bargain-hunting...

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21 October

Tanker Activity Shows Global Crude Market is Saturated



Matt Smith

Back in the spring, oil prices plunged to 7-year lows amid fears that US inventories were going to fill to the brim. As we all know now, that didn’t happen – although they did peak at a mighty 490 million barrels.

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21 October

Market Currents - Back to the Future Edition



Matt Smith

You are probably aware of this, for there has not been as big a frenzy on the internet since the last Star Wars trailer was released, but October 21, 2015 is the date when Marty McFly went 'Back to the Future'. Financial markets are responding in kind and taking us back to the future in relation to a whole plethora of data releases.

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20 October

Tuesday Charts - Slugging It Out



Matt Smith

Howdy folks! This latest collection pitches developed nations versus developing nations, China versus naysayers, OPEC against itself, and the battle within ourselves (serious stuff, huh). Read on!

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20 October

Market Currents - Woolly Worm Edition



Matt Smith

On the day that Tom Petty turns sixty-five, the crude complex is trying to rebound after yesterday's bout of free fallin'. Things are pretty thin on the economic data front, the sum of which has been lower building permits and higher housing starts out in the US, while Germany saw weaker (and deflationary) producer prices.

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19 October

Market Currents - China Weighs Edition



Matt Smith
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16 October

A Motley Crew



Matt Smith

Ahoy there, mateys! This week's pre-weekend motley crew of links await....enjoy!

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16 October

Market Currents - Bad is Great! Edition



Matt Smith

Two hundred and twenty-two years after the death of Marie Antoinette, and the crude complex is trying not to lose its head. After a week of dragging its feet and looking downbeat, oil prices are finally mustering a bounce into the weekend, as bad news is not good news....it's great!

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15 October

Market Currents - Double Data Day



Matt Smith

One hundred and seventy-one years after the birth of Nietzsche, and oil prices are gazing into the abyss. For yesterday's weekly API report yielded a whoppingly whopping +9.3 million barrel build to crude inventories - pointing furiously to a similar result from today's EIA weekly report. While a build was overwhelmingly expected - we are at the absolute peak of refinery maintenance season...

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14 October

Market Currents - On The Bubble Edition



Matt Smith

One-hundred-and-twenty-one years after the birth of ee cummings, and the crude complex is just like one of his poems - undecided about where it is going next. The crude complex is left weighing up another overnight delivery of bearish-tilted news, but hanging in there after already seeing considerable downside this week thus far.

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13 October

Tuesday Charts - Contrasting Fortunes



Matt Smith

Alrightee, folks. This week's Tuesday charts highlight contrasting fortunes across commodityland, with us kicking off with El Niño and its chompers.

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13 October

Market Currents - Back in Black Edition



Matt Smith

Thirty-five years to the day after AC/DC's 'Back in Black' went platinum, and storm clouds are returning to darken financial markets once more. Jumping right into overnight action, Chinese economic data was considerably underwhelming.

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12 October

Market Currents - OPEC Giddy Up Edition



Matt Smith

Happy Columbus Day! While most markets are open in the US, our friends in the North are closed today to celebrate Thanksgiving, while both Japanese and Brazilian markets are also recognizing national holidays. In terms of economic data flow, our main tidbits have come from India, where September's inflation data came in slightly higher than expected at 4.41% (versus 4.3%). Meanwhile,...

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09 October

A Motley Crew



Matt Smith

Welcome to the second Friday in October, and another motley crew of links. Enjoy!

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09 October

Market Currents - Quantum Leap Edition



Matt Smith

With a hat-tip to birthday boy Scott Bakula, risk-on markets have made a quantum leap higher this week, and are continuing this trend today. Broader markets are full of the joys of spring fall as we move into the full throes of earnings season, with headlines touting the strong rally in global equities this week.

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08 October

Market Currents - Great Balls of Fire Edition



Matt Smith

Goodness, gracious! 'Great Balls of Fire' was recorded some 58 years ago today, and is an apt way to describe the 8-14 day outlook from NOAA, which shows above-normal conditions across the entire US through October 21st. This is überly, überly bearish for natural gas, as it points to more neutral conditions in the coming weeks - kicking the can of heating demand down the road.

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07 October

Market Currents - Painting By Numbers Edition



Matt Smith

Given it is such a colorful day in markets today, let's do some painting by numbers to get a more complete picture of what is going down in energyland et al:

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06 October

Tuesday Charts - Sleeping Dragons, Waking Bears



Matt Smith

Let's jump straight into this first edition of Tuesday charts for October, and one of my favorite energy topics: LNG. The below chart illustrates how Chinese LNG demand is slowing...just as a whole host of global capacity additions are underway. Chinese LNG imports are down 3.5% this year, having risen 10% last year. Meanwhile, total gas consumption has only grown by 2% in the first half half...

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06 October

Market Currents - 'The Winner Takes it All' Edition



Matt Smith

Thirty-seven years to the day after Benny and Frida from ABBA were married, and the recurring theme of 'the winner takes it all' emerges once more in the global oil market. OPEC Secretary General Abdallah Salem El-Badri is on the wires today after rumors are stoked once more of a potential collaboration between OPEC and non-OPEC members to help speed up the balancing of the global market. He...

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05 October

Market Currents - Retail Sales, Saudi, and Shipping Rates



Matt Smith

To celebrate Kate Winslet's 40th birthday, there is a titanic shift underway as markets rally strongly to start the week. Although Chinese markets are closed until Thursday, the rest of Asia has been rallying like a mad thing as we are back in the realm of 'bad is good'. Rising expectations of further stimulus from Japan has supported markets, while waning expectations of a US rate hike (hark,...

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02 October

Market Currents - Five For Friday



Matt Smith

Ok folks, here are five factors to consider on this first Friday in October:

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01 October

ClipperClip: No room at the Inn?



Matt Smith

This morning I appeared on the set of CNBC's Squawk Box, and rather than addressing some of the current fleeting issues, I highlighted how our data is showing that Arab Gulf loadings have dropped off, pointing to two potential scenarios - either OPEC is dialing back on flooding the market, or there is no more room for its barrels - global inventories are full. Hark, click on the below mugshot...

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01 October

Market Currents - Markets mooching along



Matt Smith

Eighty-seven years to the day after Duke Ellington recorded 'The Mooche', and China is mooching off for a five-day holiday after delivering some better-than-expected manufacturing data. The final Caixin print came in at 47.2, above the preliminary print of 47.0, while  the official number came in at 49.8 - higher than both expectations and last month's number. Chinese markets are now closed...

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30 September

Market Currents - Economic data dump edition



Matt Smith

And there is an exciting day in store on this final day of Q3, with all manner of information to digest. Japan kicked things off overnight, and has maintained its bearish theme with industrial production down 0.5% in August versus the prior month. Onward to Europe, and German retail sales came in softer than expected at -0.4% for August (MoM), while its unemployment rate held at 6.4% for...

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29 September

Tuesday Charts: Recurring Themes



Matt Smith

Welcome, welcome! Jumping straight into this week's Tuesday charts, we land feet first into a commodity bloodbath. Bloomberg's commodity index, which measures a basket of various commodities, has fallen 50% from its high in 2011. Not only have we seen significant weakness in our dearly beloved energy commodities in the last year, but there has been longer-term weakness in the last few years...

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29 September

Market Currents - All Around the World



Matt Smith

Despite dark clouds hanging over the commodity complex, crude prices are rebounding thus far after yesterday's clobbering.  We have had quite the data deluge overnight, led by a late-month flood of numbers from Europe. The Business and Consumer Survey, a measure of confidence in the Eurozone, is likely of the most importance, while inflation data out of Spain and Germany has come in below...

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28 September

Market Currents - Saudi Concerns and Contango



Matt Smith

While it is a quiet start to the week on the economic data front, the crude complex is having a boisterous beginning. Oil is charging lower as the dollar rises and risk aversion soars. Hong Kong and South Korea are closed for holidays, while the only data point of note out of Asia was a Japanese leading indicator, which was above consensus, but below last month's number - indicating further...

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25 September

A Motley Crew



Matt Smith

Happy Friday! After an eventful week (who am I kidding, they are all eventful...), I have gathered this motley crew of quotes, links, and trends for your pre-weekend entertainment. Enjoy!

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25 September

Market Currents - Japan deflated, US rate hopes inflated



Matt Smith

On this final Friday in September (hark, 90 days to Xmas), not only are we seeing a turning in the leaves, but we are seeing a turning in market sentiment also. Broader markets overnight are on the charge higher, buoyed by rhetoric from Fed head honcho, Janet Yellen, and the affirmation that 'prospects for the U.S. economy generally appear solid'. Markets are further encouraged by her comments...

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24 September

Minions



Matt Smith

Looking at energy markets from the combination of both a global and granular view is great, because your opinion can be affirmed - or disputed - by assessing things from a very different angle. With this in mind, the origin of this post was the Republic of Congo - a Minion from the perspective of the global oil market - and how their role impacts, and is impacted by, the bigger picture. This...

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24 September

Market Currents - Warmer Weather, Downbeat Mood



Matt Smith

We have now tumbled into fall, although you wouldn't know it by looking at the weather forecast. As NOAA's 8-14 day outlook illustrates, we are set for above-normal conditions for the first week of October across, ooh, basically the entire US. This morning's natural gas storage report is expected to yield an injection well above the 5-year average of 83 Bcf, and weather forecasts point to...

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24 September

ClipperClip: Jekyll and Hyde



Matt Smith

This evening's appearance on CNBC Asia covered oil and current US fundamentals, the fear of a credit-crunch, OPEC, and its schizophrenic nature. (the market, that is, not OPEC). Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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23 September

Market Currents, Yogi Berra edition



Matt Smith

First and foremost, RIP Yogi Berra; both a great baseball player, and a warrior with words.

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22 September

Tuesday Charts: Extremities



Matt Smith

Good day, good day! Today's Tuesday charts run the gamut, highlighting various extremities that currently exist across commodityland™ and beyond. First up is a snapshot of performance year-to-date across all manner of assets.

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22 September

Market Currents - September 22, 2015



Matt Smith

Forty-six years to the day after Willie Mays hit his 600th home run, and the crude complex is striking out after yesterday's winning performance; crude prices are crumbling as the windshield wiper of risk appetite swooshes from risk-on to risk-off.

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21 September

Market Currents - September 21, 2015



Matt Smith

Despite a quiet start to the week on the economic data front - while  Japan is closed for three days due to national holidays - there is a generous amount of positivity swirling around in the US. The crude complex is ripping higher after Friday's lambasting, encouraged higher by signs of a tightening market and further closing of short positions in the latest CFTC data. As the below chart...

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18 September

Market Currents - September 18, 2015



Matt Smith

With a lack of overnight economic data to consume, we are left to reflect on yesterday's Federal Reserve decision to keep interest rates at 0.25%. While their justification to do so seems understandable - a lack of inflation remains concerning as does economic weakness in emerging markets - what is most curious is the negative response by the crude complex. Despite a weakening dollar (a...

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17 September

Market Currents - September 17, 2015



Matt Smith

Seventy-six years to the day after Ol' Blue Eyes recorded 'All or Nothing At All', and the Federal Reserve finds itself in a similar predicament. For betwixt now and 2pm ET, we are set for markets to be pushed and prodded around by uncertainty, before we hear whether the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. After yesterday's voracious rally in the...

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16 September

Market Currents - September 16, 2015



Matt Smith

Crude prices are ripping higher today thus far, egged on by a surprise draw from last night's API report. A 3.1 million barrel draw was seen, which is in contrast to the modest build expected from today's EIA report of around 1 million barrels. Distillates are expected to see a similar build to crude this morning (although last night's API print was a prodigious +3.1 mb build), while a minor...

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15 September

Tuesday Charts: A Little Bit of Everything



Matt Smith

Alrightee folks, welcome back to Tuesday charts. As we approach the first potential interest rate hike of the cycle on Thursday (get 'er done), here is an annotated chart of the S&P500, highlighting its response to various bouts of quantitative easing (aka, stimulus) in the last seven years.

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15 September

Market Currents - September 15, 2015



Matt Smith

One and a quarter centuries to the day after the birth of Agatha Christie, and markets remain shrouded in mystery ahead of Thursday's potential US interest rate hike. Persistent fears about emerging market economies dominate sentiment; Chinese equities were spooked 3.5% by these fears overnight, while scary South Korean import and export data did little to firm up the market's fragile...

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14 September

Guest Post: Cargo Trends Affirm Falling Oil Production



Matt Smith

The below guest post is by the absolutely splendid Nilofar Saidi.

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14 September

Market Currents - September 14, 2015



Matt Smith

Thirty-seven years to the day after Mork and Mindy first appeared on our TV screens, and markets this week are set to be out of this world. The drumbeat builds to a crescendo on Thursday when we get the 'will-they-won't-they-raise-the-interest rate' decision from the Federal Reserve. Betwixt now and then, we see a return to form in economic data, as well as veritable feast of energy...

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11 September

Market Currents - September 11, 2015



Matt Smith

The crude complex is charging lower into the weekend despite some bullish signals from the monthly IEA Oil Market Report (some might say today's drop is in relation to a certain research piece, but we'll side-step that).

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10 September

Changing Dynamics in US Energy Markets



Matt Smith

It is always useful to take a look at the three monthly reports from the acronym-tastic trio of the EIA, IEA, and OPEC, to look at the broader trends in energy markets. Therefore, in the aftermath of the EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook, here is some food for thought:

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10 September

Market Currents - September 10, 2015



Matt Smith

Not only is today a glorious day for Arnold Palmer as he celebrates his 86th birthday, but it is also a red letter day for us here in Energyland™ - for September 10th marks the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. As the 'flame' graphic illustrates below, we are pretty much assured of having a named storm in the Atlantic on this day based on history:

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09 September

Market Currents - September 9, 2015



Matt Smith

Amid a holiday-dappled week, we barrel in to Wednesday without the presence of the weekly oil inventory report; we will have to wait until tomorrow at 11am (EDT) for that. We do, however, get the API report after market close, although the EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook is out in the meantime to provide us with something to get our teeth into.

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08 September

Tuesday Charts: Charting China



Matt Smith

I think Elvis was onto something when he sang 'a little less conversation', so going forward each Tuesday I will aim to present a post with a little less conversation, a little more action pictures. This week's theme is China (you may have read a thing or two about them recently).

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08 September

Market Currents - September 8, 2015



Matt Smith

As the US returns to work after a long weekend, it is under the influence of various overnight releases from Europe and Asia. Brent crude is rallying strongly after seeing downside yesterday, while WTI is still playing catch-up and selling off towards mid-forty dollardom.

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04 September

Market Currents - September 4, 2015



Matt Smith

'Clack! cla-cla clack-clack clack-clack CLACK!!' (today's fanfare for Nonfarm Friday was played on football helmets to celebrate the start of college football season). It is the first Friday in September, which means we see official US employment data, aka nonfarm payrolls. Today's report has showed 173,000 jobs were created in August, which was less than the expected 220,ooo, but has been...

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03 September

China & Commodities Send Brazil into Downward Spiral



Matt Smith

According to a recent Gallup survey, the most positive people in the world are in Latin America. But given recent events in global financial markets, I suspect this upbeat attitude is being severely tested. While Venezuela teeters on the precipice of social unrest amid a persistent shortage of basic goods, the Brazilian economy is giving it a good run for its money in a race to the bottom.

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03 September

Market Currents - September 3, 2015



Matt Smith

As opposed to the usual free-form structure, let's do some painting by numbers to color in the backdrop for today's market currents. Henceforth, five observations ahoy:

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02 September

Market Currents - September 2, 2015



Matt Smith

Once again, the API has put the cat among the pigeons ahead of the weekly EIA inventory report. Prices had already spent yesterday getting stomped on all day, before the API released its report, revealing a surprise 7.6 million barrel build versus the expectation for a minor 0.8 mb draw. This was the largest build since April (think: refinery maintenance), and was a mirror image of last week's...

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01 September

ClipperClip: Reacting to the Rally



Matt Smith

After crude oil's wild three-day rally, I appeared on CNBC Asia to discuss the potential of OPEC and non-OPEC countries coming together to cut production. (um, unlikely). Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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01 September

Market Currents - September 1, 2015



Matt Smith

Suckerpinch, suckerpunch, for the first day of the month. We kick off September carrying the baggage that we picked up last month - that of economic fears ignited by China. Overnight PMI numbers from the world's largest energy consumer (and second largest economy) has done little (well, nothing) to dissuade this notion. The official PMI manufacturing print came in line with consensus but...

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01 September

ClipperClip: Crude Oil Gymnastics



Matt Smith

This afternoon's appearance on 'After The Bell' on Fox Business addressed the potential impact of an interest rate hike on crude prices, as well as current gymnastics in the crude market as prices trampoline nearly 30% higher. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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31 August

Market Currents - August 31, 2015



Matt Smith

Arightee folks, this week is set to be a scream (R.I.P. Wes Craven) as we shimmy from August into September (hark, 114 shopping days until Xmas), and into a deluge of new economic data. Chinese equities overnight have wilted into the end of the month, racking up a 12.5% loss for August, while we've had a few tidbits of data out of Europe.

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28 August

ClipperClip: Gasoline Goin' Down



Matt Smith

This evening's appearance on Fox Business addressed whether today's oil price spike would impact future gasoline prices (spoiler: no), with a bit about OPEC too. If for nothing else, watch the clip to see the old dude jumping up and down for joy at the pump around 3:40; it is both random and awesome. I'm up after the first two minutes of the segment:

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28 August

Market Currents - August 28, 2015



Matt Smith

On this final Friday in August, the crude complex is looking lower into the weekend after yesterday's nutty 10% rally. The rollercoaster ride across financial markets continues apace, with Chinese equities rallying nearly 5% amid further market intervention from Chinese authorities to prop it up up.

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27 August

10 Challenges Faced by the Global LNG Market



Matt Smith

We recently looked at the restart of the first Japanese nuclear reactor in four years, and assessed its impact on Japanese oil demand. It was somewhat burying the lede, however, not to address the impact on LNG demand. So with Japan’s developments still fresh in our minds, here are ten challenges faced by the global LNG market:

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27 August

Market Currents - August 27, 2015



Matt Smith

To celebrate Pee Wee Herman's 63rd birthday, markets are having their own big adventure today. Overnight equity markets have been racing higher, catching up with yesterday's effervescent rally in the US. Just as we saw a vicious cycle of selling earlier in the week, positive sentiment is traveling across the time zones like a game of pass the parcel. Risk aversion exits stage-right (hey ho, ...

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26 August

Market Currents - August 26, 2015



Matt Smith

After last week's EIA inventory report yielded a lower refining/higher imports-sponsored build to crude stocks, last night's 7.3 million barrel drop from the API report is indicating we should see a fairly hefty draw from the EIA this morning. After last night's last-minute sell-off in US equities, risk appetite has picked itself up again and has dusted itself off, and is looking at another...

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25 August

Market Currents - August 25, 2015



Matt Smith

Forty years to the day after Bruce Springsteen's third album was released, and markets do indeed seem born to run today. Although the Chinese stock market fell a further 7.6% overnight, the post-close announcement of an interest rate cut (by 0.25%) and a cut in China's reserve requirement ratio (by 0.5%) has further endorsed a rebound in both European and US equity markets. Both were already...

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24 August

Market Currents - August 24, 2015



Matt Smith

Not a lot going on this morning, except for the small matter of a bloodbath of epic proportions across global markets. After US equity markets got crushed on Friday, the ever-volatile Chinese equity market has not disappointed overnight, getting ab-sol-ute-ly walloped, dropping 8.5% in its daily biggest sell-off since 2007. Regardless of where you want to pin the blame - Chinese economic...

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21 August

Market Currents - August 21, 2015



Matt Smith

One hundred and eleven years after the birth of Count Basie, and the ongoing rout in the crude complex is in full swing today. Downhill one-way traffic continues amid headlines such as 'No End in Sight for Oil Glut' and 'Oil Poised for Longest Weekly Losing Streak Since 1986 Amid Glut'. As the headlines get more apocalyptic, and the price projections get lower (this week: $15 oil, no, $10 oil...

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20 August

Market Currents - August 20, 2015



Matt Smith

Yesterday's 2.6 million barrel build to crude stocks from the US weekly inventory report has sucker-punched oil prices lower once more. A drop in refinery utilization - combined with imports popping above 8 million barrels per day for the first time since April - flip-flopped the expectation of a 2 million barrel draw into the reality of a solid build.

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20 August

ClipperClip: A 'WW-shaped' recovery?



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box came amid another calamitous clobbering in the crude market. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to a discussion about a potential U,L, or WW-shaped recovery:

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19 August

Market Currents - August 19, 2015



Matt Smith

The crude complex is looking relatively calm, limbering up ahead of the weekly inventory report today. Last night's API report yielded a 2.3 million barrel draw to crude stocks, giving some credence to today's expectation for a 0.8 mb draw from the EIA report. A solid build is expected to distillates, while a solid draw expected to gasoline - the Whiting refinery outage no doubt providing a...

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18 August

Market Currents - August 18, 2015



Matt Smith

And there is a familiar feeling about today, as economic woes have clobbered the Chinese stock market overnight (hark, down 6.2%). Heavy selling ensued into the close, as a seeming lack of government intervention to support the market (?!) stoked concerns, and ergo, voracious selling. Nearly three-fifths of stocks finished limit down (-10%).

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17 August

Market Currents - August 17, 2015



Matt Smith

As we charge into the second half of August, the crude complex is continuing to charge lower. Things are pretty quiet on the economic data front, while what we have seen has only served to further spook economic fears. New York-area manufacturing conditions tumbled to their worst level since April 2009, raising further doubts about an interest rate rise in the US next month.

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14 August

What a Nuclear Restart Means for Japanese Oil Demand



Matt Smith

With so much focus on the level of Chinese oil imports, impending US LNG exports, and India's rising coal consumption, it goes somewhat by the wayside that Japan is one of the largest global consumers of all three of these commodities.

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14 August

Market Currents - August 14, 2015



Matt Smith

And the crude complex is like a bruised prize fighter this morning, trying to get up off the canvas after being knocked down once again. Prices have had a whiff of smelling salts from overnight markets, as the yuan has stabilized, giving way to some dollar weakness. We've got a number of different data releases to digest today, before we get the crude-specific cherry on top to round out the...

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14 August

ClipperClip: Glimpses of Bullishness



Matt Smith

It feels like I swore on TV tonight, but I dared to suggest that the market was overlooking some of the more bullish elements from the oil-related reports this week, honing in instead on the ongoing issue of oversupply. Hark, click on the below (smiley) mugshot to launch to this evening's last-minute appearance on CNBC Asia:

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13 August

Market Currents - August 13, 2015



Matt Smith

Third time is a charm as China has reset its currency peg for a third day on the trot. The law of diminishing returns means markets are somewhat insulated from the fear factor of a third day of currency devaluation, while financial markets put on their rose-tinted glasses and buy in (literally) to the prospect that this latest attempt from China to stimulate its economy just might work. Hence,...

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12 August

Market Currents - August 12, 2015



Matt Smith

Alrightee, folks; let's get the overnight Chinese capers out of the way before we move on to the good stuff. China re-set its currency peg for a second consecutive day, essentially a mechanism to devalue its currency. Although financial markets are freaking out, the IMF has chimed in to try and look on the bright side, saying it is 'a welcome step as it should allow market forces to have a...

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11 August

Cognitive Dissonance and Dunking



Matt Smith

Part of life is accepting your shortcomings, and trying to move beyond them. For example, I have had to come to terms with the fact I will never be able to dunk, or write 'citizen' without questioning its spelling. (Every single time). When it comes to trading, there is a limitation known as cognitive dissonance, where you may hold a certain opinion about a market, despite evidence telling you...

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11 August

Market Currents - August 11, 2015



Matt Smith

To celebrate Hulk Hogan's 62nd birthday, the crude complex is getting body-slammed. The sell-off has been sponsored by news overnight that China has removed its currency peg. This essentially means the yuan is being devalued by the government, as it tries to reinvigorate its stalling economy. Accordingly, dollar strength is stomping on oil prices.

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10 August

Market Currents - August 10, 2015



Matt Smith

After charging lower overnight in response to weak Chinese economic data over the weekend, oil prices are composing themselves once more and mustering a bounce from multi-month lows.

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07 August

Market Currents - August 7, 2015



Matt Smith

Ting ta-ta-ting-ting ting-TING! (this morning's fanfare for Nonfarm Friday was played on Caribbean steel drums, in homage to the tropical month of August). The oil market is taking its cues from today's official US employment report (no shock, there), hence as a relatively in-line report helps to edge open the door a little more for rate hikes in the coming months, the dollar strengthens...

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06 August

Market Currents - August 6, 2015



Matt Smith

As we limber up for tomorrow’s fun and games with the arrival of Nonfarm Friday (fanfare included), the crude complex maintains its mood from yesterday...looking downbeat and glum; a combination of oversupply fears and a stronger dollar continue to remain the fear du jour.

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05 August

Market Currents - August 5, 2015



Matt Smith

A fun-filled day lies ahead of us for the crude complex, as today is what is known as a 'Heinz' day; there are 57 varieties of market influences to shake things up.

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04 August

ClipperClip: Bearish in the Bluegrass



Matt Smith

After Brent crude received a 5% thumping down to a six-month low, I appeared on CNBC Asia's Squawk Box to talk about where the market could be going next. Host Bernie Lo is always great; this time he dropped some knowledge about the Bluegrass state, calling me the Louisville slugger. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the serious part of the interview:

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04 August

Market Currents - August 4, 2015



Matt Smith

114 years to the day after the birth of the mighty, mighty Satchmo, and the crude complex is trying to change its tune and march to a bullish beat. Brent is clambering back above $50 after dropping back to January lows yesterday, while WTI is trying to swing away from mid-forty dollardom.

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03 August

Market Currents - August 3, 2015



Matt Smith

The usual suspects are loitering on this first trading day in August to plunder crude prices lower, as dollar strength swirls and Chinese weakness weighs heavy like concrete boots. In addition, Greek woes and Iranian rumors are only adding to this bearish tilt.  Brent crude is back to levels not seen since January, while WTI seems intent on re-testing the lows made in March, with China kicking...

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24 July

Torn in the UAE



Matt Smith

In recent days the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced it will be cutting fuel subsidies starting August 1. It joins a growing list of countries that are taking the opportunity from a precipitous drop in oil prices in the last year to unwind longstanding subsidies.

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24 July

Market Currents - July 24, 2015



Matt Smith

It's a mixed bag in the crude complex today, as Brent is getting dragged lower by further weakness in the euro, while WTI is pushing higher after being ab-sol-ute-ly bludgeoned this week. Gasoline is looking up.

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23 July

Jumping The Shark



Matt Smith

To be honest, I had not heard of the phrase 'Jumping The Shark' until recently (I'm not talking about surfer Mick Fanning either). It's not like I didn't watch 'Happy Days' when I was growing up, I just don't remember that episode.

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23 July

Market Currents - July 23, 2015



Matt Smith

Oil prices are struggling to dead-cat bounce after yesterday's sucker punch of a crude build sent prices spiraling through support around the $50 mark. The surprise build to crude stocks was sponsored by a strong rise in imports (#ClipperData last week showed 11.5 million barrels of Latin American crude imports into the Gulf coast, as well as 8 million barrels from the Middle East), despite...

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22 July

Market Currents - July 22, 2015



Matt Smith

The September WTI contract steps onto the dance-floor as prompt month, and immediately starts a defensive jig at the $50 mark. Prices are once again striking a pose at this psychological level - with technical support to back it up - ahead of the weekly EIA inventory report today.

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21 July

Market Currents - July 21, 2015



Matt Smith

From gold to crude to sugar, from the lira to the loonie, the list has been growing in recent days of commodities and currencies that are being shunned like a redheaded step-child. Even milk prices have gone sour in New Zealand (sorry, shameful pun).

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20 July

Market Currents - July 20, 2015



Matt Smith

As Carlos Santana celebrates his 68th birthday, the crude complex is trying to avoid being shredded on this third Monday in July. Ahead of tomorrow's expiry of the WTI August contract, the US dollar is showing strength as expectations continue to rise for a interest rate hike in September. Greek banks re-open today for the first time in three weeks, although withdrawal restrictions still...

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17 July

Market Currents - July 17, 2015



Matt Smith

With a number of Asian countries closed overnight for a holiday (while Iraq declared an impromptu holiday yesterday due to a heat wave), the market is having a very tepid end to the week. A lack of data overnight has given way to US inflation data this morning, which has been bang-smack-dab in line (as retail gasoline prices have ticked sideways for the last month - lest we forget, all paths...

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16 July

Chinese Crude Oil Capers



Matt Smith

It appears to be a conundrum worthy of the attention of Fred, Daphne, and Velma (complete with Shaggy and Scooby to solve it), as contrasting signals out of the world’s largest energy consumer has left its impact on oil demand shrouded in mystery.

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16 July

Market Currents - July 16, 2015



Matt Smith

As the dust settles and the conjecture starts about the Iran nuclear deal and its implications for the oil market next year, prices are seeing a bit of a rebound from yesterday's strong dollar-inspired sell-off, as an outage in the North Sea at the Buzzard field boosts Brent. Gasoline, like Jordan Spieth at the British Open, is also building a charge.

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15 July

ClipperClip: Iran Iran Iran Iran Iran



Matt Smith

After the deal made today relating to the curbing of Iran's nuclear program, I was on deck for CNBC's Asia's early morning show, 'The Rundown' to give my, err, rundown on its implications. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip:

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14 July

Market Currents - July 14, 2015



Matt Smith

It is like London buses - we've been waiting for some signs of progress from one of the triumvirate of recent market tyranny - Greece, Iran, and China - and then, suddenly, we get progress from two out of three of them at once (which ain't bad - Meatloaf said so).

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13 July

Market Currents - July 13, 2015



Matt Smith

Oil prices are selling off strongly as we appear close to an Iranian nuclear deal. With an announcement expected later today, the prospect of an influx of new barrels to the market is sending prices charging lower to start the week. Meanwhile, the Greek debt debacle has a few more twists and turns left in its tale, as developments over the weekend sees Eurozone leaders agreeing to offer Greece...

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10 July

Market Currents - July 10, 2015



Matt Smith

A positive end to the week seems in store for oil prices, as the latest developments from the three Stooges of market sentiment encourage markets higher. Chinese equities have rallied a further 4.6% overnight, adding to the prior day's 5.8% rally (it's amazing what markets will do when you ban selling). Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear talks are set to persist into next week. It is our third Stooge,...

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09 July

Market Currents - July 9, 2015



Matt Smith

One hundred and forty-three years to the day after John F. Blondel patented the doughnut cutter, and holes are being poked in the US Central Bank's plan to hike interest rates. Yesterday afternoon's Fed meeting minutes ushered in a wave of caution about both the US economy and broader volatility in global markets, pushing the probability of a September hike to below 20%. As we know all too well,...

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08 July

I Love It When A Plan Comes Together



Matt Smith

After already writing about Indiana Jones this week, and kicking off this post with an homage to The A-Team's Hannibal (George Peppard, of course), you may think that I am stuck in the eighties, but I assure you this is not the case. (Mostly).

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08 July

Market Currents - July 8, 2015



Matt Smith

And as we charge into the the middle of the week, the crude complex is once again having a whiff of sniffing salts, and trying to revive itself once more. Inventory data may provide the wake-up call it needs to hold onto gains thus far today, as the weekly EIA report looks to emulate last night's API report in yielding a modest draw to crude stocks. Gasoline is expected to see a more solid...

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07 July

ClipperClip: Dodging Greece



Matt Smith

This morning's appearance on CNBC Squawk Box was always going to be fun, given the clobbering the crude market received yesterday. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to a discussion which covers Iran, China, OPEC - and refreshingly not Greece:

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07 July

Market Currents - July 7, 2015



Matt Smith

The crude complex is trying to muster a dead cat bounce (meow) after getting ab-sol-ute-ly clobbered yesterday. Brent is hanging tough, although WTI is looking rather unconvincing ahead of today's EIA's monthly Short Term Energy Outlook and tomorrow's weekly inventory report. In fact, it appears to have already thrown in the towel. Tomorrow's weekly report should see oil inventories draw down...

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06 July

Indiana Jones, Beyoncé, and Saudi Oil Production



Matt Smith

Thirty-four years ago today, Indiana Jones was the number one movie at the box office with 'Raiders of The Lost Ark'. 1981 was also the year in which Beyoncé was born. These two reference points are just to highlight how long ago 1981 was (even if a swashbuckling Harrison Ford doesn't seem that distant a memory). But while the world was a very different place back in 1981, one thing is the...

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06 July

Market Currents - July 6, 2015



Matt Smith

Dominating market movements front and center today is the result of yesterday's Greek referendum, which saw the country vote against accepting creditor's demands for further austerity to help ease its debt burden. Unfortunately, this leaves another two weeks of gyrations for broader markets, under the influence of ongoing negotiations betwixt Greece and creditors. As we know all too well, markets...

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02 July

Market Currents - 2 July, 2015



Matt Smith

Baaahhh! Bahbah bahp-bahp bahp-bahp Baaahhhh! (for Nonfarm Thursday deserves a fanfare - everyone knows that).

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01 July

Market Currents - July 1, 2015



Matt Smith

And we have another fantastic day in store, as there is more going on across the world of financial markets than we can shake a stick at. If we start with what is most nearest and dearest, the crude complex is getting whooped thus far today, ahead of the weekly EIA inventory report. Last night's API report showed a surprise 1.9 million barrel build, sponsored by a rebound in imports (Clipper saw...

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30 June

Market Currents - June 30, 2015



Matt Smith

And there is another veritable feast of information flow to digest today, as Greece lets it be known their dog ate their check book and they will not be paying the IMF the ~$1.7 billion it owes them. This technically pushes the country into default, and to the brink of financial collapse. While discussions are no doubt ongoing behind closed doors, attention now shifts towards a Greek referendum...

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29 June

Market Currents - June 29, 2015



Matt Smith

With a shortened trading week on deck, a myriad of bearish influences have put concrete boots on prices. The key instigator has been weekend developments in the ongoing Greek tragicomedy, with Greek banks now being closed for a week amid a surprise referendum being called by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on July 5th. Tomorrow looms a deadline for Greece to make a repayment to the IMF of EUR1.6...

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26 June

Market Currents - June 26, 2015



Matt Smith

The crude complex is plodding lower into the weekend, and has been looking a little peaky ever since Wednesday's weekly inventory report. Being faced with a weekend of tense negotiations on two fronts, with ongoing Greek debt wranglings being joined by Iranian nuclear discussions, the crude complex has seemingly succumbed to state of indifference.

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24 June

Market Currents - June 24, 2015



Matt Smith

Crude prices are treading water, with WTI just above $60, Brent back hanging out in mid-sixty dollardom ahead of the weekly US inventory report. Another chunky draw is furiously pointed to by yesterday's API number, which showed a 3.2 million barrel draw to crude stocks. Consensus is looking at a 2 million barrel draw for crude from today's EIA report, and a minor draw for gasoline. Crude draws...

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22 June

Market Currents - June 22, 2015



Matt Smith

Oscillations in the oil market continue to be swayed by sentiment relating to Greece. Hence, as an emergency EU summit is held in Brussels, hopes for a potential compromise is buoying markets once more. The latest CFTC data underscores the current push-me-pull-you range-bound nature of oil prices, as both bullish and bearish oil bets were reduced by hedge funds last week, as a potential easing in...

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19 June

Market Currents - June 19, 2015



Matt Smith

As Greece faces up to its last opportunity of avoiding default (since the last one), the ECB is providing Greek banks with emergency liquidity assistance to help it avoid a banking crisis in the coming days. The crude complex continues to be pushed and prodded around by ongoing Greek waxing and waning, and a softening euro / stronger dollar is dragging crude lower into the weekend.

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18 June

Market Currents - June 18, 2015



Matt Smith

And thus we find ourselves: Greece to the left of us, the Fed is to the right; here we are, stuck in the middle with crude. For fumes of hope still linger for a Greek debt deal, rallying the euro and egging on buying in black gold, Texas tea. Meanwhile, yesterday's bombastic bombardment of Fed-speak has left the market seemingly more confused and less informed about the timing of interest rate...

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17 June

Market Currents - June 17, 2015



Matt Smith

And crude is ripping higher as the see-saw of sentiment tips away from oversupply fears to signs of rising demand. This morning's weekly inventory report from the EIA is set to yield a draw to crude stocks, although larger than the consensus of 1.7 million barrels should yesterday's API report be an accurate barometer (it was last week, in all fairness). Gasoline is expected to see a minor draw,...

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16 June

Market Currents - June 16, 2015



Matt Smith

As the Brent crude August contract steps onto the dance-floor as prompt month, prices are flat-footed amid a backdrop of souring European sentiment on a number of fronts. The stand-off between Greece and European creditors continues, with time running out before a Greek default at the end of the month, as its bailout package expires. The wave of negative sentiment created by this impasse has...

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15 June

Market Currents - June 15, 2015



Matt Smith

One of the biggest themes in the crude market in 2015 returns to the fore to dominate this new week, as the ebb and flow of the euro versus the US dollar pokes oil prices with a big stick. Weakness in the euro has returned, mirroring the downbeat state of current debt negotiations betwixt Greece and its European creditors. As seemingly predictable as a Lifetime movie, we are likely to reach a...

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12 June

Market Currents - June 12, 2015



Matt Smith

And WTI is ending the week swinging round the monkey-bar of $60, Brent back to hanging around mid-sixty dollardom, as a lack of resolution to the Greece debt debate is clobbering the euro, kiboshing a rally in crude.

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11 June

Market Currents - June 11, 2015



Matt Smith

And the trilogy is complete today as the IEA has released its monthly oil market report, hot on the heels of this week's EIA and OPEC releases. One of the key takeaways has been its upward revision to demand growth for this year, with the agency projecting 1.4 million barrels per day of growth, up 300,000 barrels per day from the prior outlook.

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About the Authors

MATT SMITH


Matt Smith deciphers and distills what is most relevant across the energy complex into cohesive and pithy knowledge you can use. The belly laugh is a bonus.

Matt Smith

DAN GRAEBER


Dan Graeber is Chief Editor at ClipperData. He specializes in exploring the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil.

Dan Graeber

AMIR RICHANI


Amir Richani is a geopolitical analyst at ClipperData, with a voracious appetite for studying political, economic and social developments in Latin America.

Amir Richani

NOAM RAYDAN


Noam Raydan is an analyst at ClipperData, focusing on political and security developments that could disrupt oil flows in the MENA region. She is also a tanker sleuth, scouring the high seas for unusual activities.

Noam Raydan

KEN SMITHMIER


Ken Smithmier is our Director of Research for Agricultural Markets. Follow along as Ken gets granular about grains.

Ken Smithmier


JOSH LOWELL


Josh Lowell is an energy analyst at ClipperData. He specializes in marine fuels, and is known for talking about IMO2020 in his sleep.

Josh Lowell


RON COIFMAN


Ron Coifman Ron is a petrochemicals markets editor at ClipperData. He has over four decades of experience in the petrochemical industry, with a particularly encyclopedic knowledge of Latin America markets.

Ron Coifman


KALEEM ASGHAR


Kaleem Asghar Kaleem is ClipperData's Director of LNG analytics, and our main man when it comes to all things natural gas related..

Kaleem Asghar

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