As a humongous draw to oil inventories has wrong-footed the market, crude prices have ripped higher in response. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today:
Iran is targeting 4 million barrels per day, some ~400kbd higher than its current level, while Nigeria is ~450kbd adrift of its production level of 2mn bpd earlier in the year. Finally, under the (highly) unlikely scenario that Libya could increase production back to pre-civil war levels, another 900kbd could be coming to market also.
4) The sub-header below regarding producing more / supporting a freeze is one of 57 varieties of rhetoric we have been getting from the likes of Russia, Iraq, Iran et al.
Iraq is apparently willing to entertain a production freeze, but only after reaching a certain level of output, and one which is higher than where they are currently.
Comments from Falah Alamri, the head of Iraq's State Oil Marketing Co. (SOMO) endorse this notion, as he declares an expectation for steady growth in oil output and exports for next year.
5) The chart below helps to illustrate the point we make above regarding record OPEC exports; it underscores the change in stance by OPEC since that infamous meeting in November 2014 (h/t @ronbousso1). OPEC's oil market share has been ticking higher since, as Iran, Iraq and Saudi ramp up their crude exports. Increasing flows from Nigeria and Libya (should they happen) will only further improve this percentage: