Scary times lay ahead, as Halloween looms and Iranian sanctions beckon. Despite a lesser drop-off in Iranian exports than expected, they still appear set for a roller coaster ride lower as we hurtle through November. With this white-knuckle ride in mind, shifts in crude flows have been underway as end-users make arrangements so they aren't left wondering: Dude, where's my sour?*
Last month, India imported Canadian crude for the first time since October 2017, with 1 million barrels of heavy sour Kearl discharging at Indian Oil's Mundra terminal. Ecuadorian heavy sour Napo is also a less typical grade to India, but two cargoes have been discharged in the last two months, both at Reliance's Jamnagar refinery.
We are also seeing higher volumes of Kazakh light sour CPC blend and medium sour Russian Urals delivered to India in recent months, as shifting price spreads amid higher demand have pulled barrels away from Europe and toward Asia.