Downward pressure on oil via Fed hike fears

May 19, 2016 11:43:23 AM EST

rcForty two years to the day after Erno Rubik invented the Rubik's cube, and the oil market is looking puzzled. As the fear of a potentially hugely huge 0.25% U.S. interest rate hike in June reverberates around the world, a firming US dollar has greased the wheels for an oil sell-off today. Hark, here are five things to consider in the oil market:

1) Venezuela is offering its crude at its biggest discount since 2008 as it scrambles for revenue and battles for market share. The discount of a basket of Venezuelan oil versus WTI is now more than $12/bbl, and is averaging a discount of $8.44/bbl so far this year. While Venezuela's heavier crude should be at a discount to WTI's higher quality, light sweet crude, the discount of $3.78/bbl in 2015 and $3.73/bbl in 2014 seems closer to fair value than the current discount.

Venezuela oil

2) Following on from this point we can see in our ClipperData that Venezuelan crude loadings were down ~9% in Q1 versus the same period last year - a direct response to lower production. Crude oil loadings last month, however, were at their highest since last October, amid planned and unplanned refinery outages.

This has meant lower domestic crude demand, meaning more available for exportation. Loadings at the Jose Antonio Anzoategui complex, which account for nearly 70% of loadings, are at their highest since at least 2013:

ClipperData Venezuela crude oil loadings

3) We've had a sprinkling of economic data out of Europe today; tales of retail sales in Blighty (aka the UK) were much better than expected, while French unemployment ticked lower to (a still-elevated) 10.2%.

Onto the US, and weekly jobless claims have come in below consensus for a second consecutive week, but nowhere near as dreadful as last week's doozie of a miss. 278k claims were seen, a little higher than consensus of 275k. Philly Fed manufacturing was similar to the regional NY Empire manufacturing number earlier in the week - both have been below consensus and showing worsening conditions.

4) The chart below is from this piece about the ongoing prominence and dominance of Saudi Arabia in the global oil market ahead of its IPO. With Saudi embroiled in a market share battle, it still has some of the largest oil resources in the world, with the some of the lowest breakeven costs. In contrast, although countries such as Canada and Russia have access to vast resources, breakeven costs for these projects are considerably higher:

breakevens

5) Finally, the below chart highlights the largest sovereign wealth funds across the globe. The key takeaway is that the majority of these funds are held in petro-nations; the largest funds are war chests built on oil wealth:

SWF

About the Author

Matt Smith

deciphers and distills what is most relevant across the energy complex into cohesive and pithy knowledge you can use. The belly laugh is a bonus.

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