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Angola Unpegged 

Jan 10, 2018 12:46:00 PM EST

In an effort to shore up dwindling reserves, Angola has decided to unpeg its currency, the kwanza, from the U.S. dollar - a peg which has been in place since April 2016

Angola's foreign exchange reserves have halved since 2014, as the West African nation has attempted to defend the kwanza versus the U.S. dollar. Unpegging the currency has caused a swift 10 percent weakening in the currency, with further devaluation likely ahead unless oil prices continue to rally from here.

Angola joins other nations such as Nigeria and Russia, who have intervened in their currencies to halt dwindling foreign exchange reserves and bolster economic growth. Hark, a halving in reserves:

 kwanza versus foreign exchange reserves.jpg

Angola is the second largest oil exporter in Africa, relying on the oil industry for half of its GDP and about three-quarters of its government revenues. The country committed to lower its output by 78,000 bpd as part of the OPEC production cut in 2017. According to our modeling, for them to be in compliance, they needed to dial back exports by 76,000 bpd.

In 2017, exports were lower than year-ago levels in ten out of twelve months, equating to an average drop of 101,000 bpd in 2017 versus October 2016's reference level - highlighting over-compliance with the OPEC production cut deal.

By the end of 2017, Angola had held 37 million barrels of exports off the global market versus October 2016's reference level. Despite the country's economic struggles, it has wholeheartedly participated in the OPEC production cut deal - not something we can say about all members:

Angola cumulative drop in exports ClipperData.jpg

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As we discussed yesterday that despite dialing back on total exports, Angola showed the biggest year-on-year increase in OPEC deliveries to China in 2017, sending 100,000 bpd more than in 2016. India, the third-largest destination, also saw higher flows.

As Chinese and Indian deliveries rose, flows to the U.S. - the second-largest destination for Angolan crude - dropped.  Arrivals fell by 32,000 bpd in 2017 versus the prior year. Medium sweet Clov was the most popular import last year, followed by light sweet Plutonio and medium sour Hungo. Imports averaged 127,000 bpd versus the year prior, with a heavy lean towards the latter half:  

angola to us.jpg

About the Author

Matt Smith

deciphers and distills what is most relevant across the energy complex into cohesive and pithy knowledge you can use. The belly laugh is a bonus.

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